Editor’s note: Projected finish has been updated as of Sunday:
It might be time for Hendrick Motorsports to break out the big victory hats again this weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. That’s because Racing Insights predicts William Byron, driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet, will be headed to Victory Lane on Sunday in the Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
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In the advanced metrics updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying, Byron still comes out on top and ahead of teammate Kyle Larson. After that, there have been some changes in the projected finishing order since Thursday’s original post. Ryan Blaney, Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick round out the new top five, with Wallace improving six spots over the weekend. Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, Alex Bowman, Denny Hamlin and Chris Buescher complete the top 10. Hamlin fell six spots after practice and qualifying.
Perhaps the biggest reason to expect Byron to top off the field this week was the dominance he showed on the 1.5-mile tracks throughout the 2023 season. He won the spring Las Vegas race last year and scored 44 more points than any other driver on 1.5-mile tracks in 2023.
If Byron can replicate last year’s superiority on 1.5-mile tracks, then that will be a significant obstacle for the rest of the field to overcome.
OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH
KYLE LARSON: Larson won the Las Vegas race in October and has finished inside the top 10 in 10 of his last 12 Las Vegas starts. If Byron doesn’t bust out the big hats, it could be Larson doing the honors instead.
MARTIN TRUEX JR.: The two-time Las Vegas winner is the only driver to finish in the top 10 there in every one of the four races in the Next Gen car. Clearly, he and the No. 19 team at Joe Gibbs Racing have hit on something that works well in the desert.
CHRISTOPHER BELL: He’s lurking beneath Larson and Byron in several of the key stats at Las Vegas and on 1.5-mile tracks, but one place where he leads is with his streak of four top-10 finishes on 1.5-mile tracks. Count on Christopher to be in the hunt.
ROSS CHASTAIN: He’s third behind Larson and Byron in laps led at Las Vegas in the Next Gen car. Look for the Trackhouse Racing star to do some more disrupting this week.
BUBBA WALLACE: He’s known more for his superspeedway racing, but Wallace is showing significant progress on 1.5-mile tracks with five top-10 finishes in the last seven races. Plus, he finished fourth at Las Vegas last spring.
Projections as of Sunday, March 3.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE PENNZOIL 400 PRESENTED BY JIFFY LUBE
Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.
| Finish | Car Number | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | William Byron |
| 2 | 5 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 4 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 5 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 6 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 7 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 8 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 9 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 10 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 11 | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 12 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 13 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 14 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 15 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 16 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 17 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 18 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 19 | 14 | Chase Briscoe |
| 20 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 21 | 34 | Michael McDowell |
| 22 | 7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 23 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 24 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 25 | 21 | Harrison Burton |
| 26 | 51 | Justin Haley |
| 27 | 10 | Noah Gragson |
| 28 | 4 | Josh Berry |
| 29 | 41 | Ryan Preece |
| 30 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 31 | 38 | Todd Gilliland |
| 32 | 71 | Zane Smith |
| 33 | 42 | John H. Nemechek |
| 34 | 31 | Daniel Hemric |
| 35 | 44 | J.J. Yeley |
| 36 | 15 | Kaz Grala |
| 37 | 16 | Derek Kraus |