Editor’s Note: This story was updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions.
After Christopher Bell led the charge in a dominant Toyota performance on the 1-mile Phoenix Raceway, Racing Insights predicts the manufacturer to stay on top, and this time sees Denny Hamlin take the checkered flag at Bristol Motor Speedway in the Food City 500 on Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Hamlin is the most recent winner on the Bristol concrete and has been stout on the surface dating back to 2019 with a pair of victories and five top 10s in the last seven races.
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The metrics predict Kyle Larson, 2021 fall Bristol winner, to finish second. Polesitter Ryan Blaney and Larson’s Hendrick teammates Chase Elliott and William Byron are projected to round out the top five. Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr. and Bubba Wallace are projected to complete the top 10.
The twist of not running the new short-track package, coupled with the fact that it will be the first time in the Next Gen era that the Bristol spring race is on concrete, could cause fierce battles up and down the grid. This weekend will be a test for how teams react to the new landscape surrounding Sunday’s race.
OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH
CHRISTOPHER BELL: Bell won at Bristol last spring, but the difference is that there is no dirt this time. That shouldn’t be a problem for Bell. Whether it’s dirt or concrete, he stands firmly at the top with 835 laps run in the top five at Bristol since 2022 and has scored the second most points at the circuit in the Next Gen era.
CHASE ELLIOTT: The 2020 champ is focused on becoming a perennial contender once again. Bristol bodes as a circuit for Elliott to finally crack the top 10 as he’s finished second (2022) and seventh (2023) in his last two visits there.
TY GIBBS: It’s already been an impressive start to Gibbs’ sophomore season. He led 102 laps last time around the “Last Great Colosseum,” and given how he took control at The Clash in February and Phoenix last week, the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota will be one to watch.
CHRIS BUESCHER: A previous Bristol winner himself, it’s hard to think Buescher won’t be in the mix this weekend. He’s finished in the top 10 in three of the last four Bristol races and only ranks third behind Bell and Larson for most laps run inside the top five at Bristol in the Next Gen era (609).
BRAD KESELOWSKI: Both RFK cars cracked the top five last week, and with another short track on deck, it’s hard to imagine they won’t ride the momentum into another solid weekend. Keselowski is a three-time Bristol winner and RFK Racing has made a note to be a force on the short track since last season.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE FOOD CITY 500
Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.
| Finish | Car Number | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 5 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 4 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 5 | 24 | William Byron |
| 6 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 7 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 8 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 9 | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 10 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 11 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 12 | 14 | Chase Briscoe |
| 13 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 14 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 15 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 16 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 17 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 18 | 41 | Ryan Preece |
| 19 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 20 | 34 | Michael McDowell |
| 21 | 10 | Noah Gragson |
| 22 | 7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 23 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 24 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 25 | 21 | Harrison Burton |
| 26 | 38 | Todd Gilliland |
| 27 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 28 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 29 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 30 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger |
| 31 | 51 | Justin Haley |
| 32 | 42 | John H. Nemechek |
| 33 | 4 | Josh Berry |
| 34 | 71 | Zane Smith |
| 35 | 31 | Daniel Hemric |
| 36 | 15 | Kaz Grala |