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March 24, 2024

Racing Insights projection: Tyler Reddick will roll to Victory Lane at COTA

Tyler Reddick celebrate win at Circuit of The Americas.
Chris Graythen
Getty Images

Editor’s note: Projection has been updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions:

After a diverse mix of superspeedways, intermediate tracks and short tracks in the opening five races, the Cup Series gears up for a tussle on the road course on Sunday at Circuit of The Americas in the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN Radio, Sirius XM NASCAR Radio).

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Racing Insights’ forecast points to Tyler Reddick as the likely one to secure another victory at COTA.

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Reddick, the most recent winner at COTA, has exhibited remarkable skill in navigating twisty tracks in a Cup car. With eight top-10 finishes in the last 10 road-course races, he is the only driver to win more than once on road courses in the Next Gen car. Reddick is also the only driver to qualify and finish in the top five in the two races at COTA in the Next Gen era.

Following Reddick in the projections is a Hendrick Motorsports trio of Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and William Byron, with Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell jumping up into the top five and replacing Michael McDowell after Saturday’s practice and qualifying session (the full projection is listed below).


ROSS CHASTAIN: Chastain scored his first career cup win at COTA back in 2022, and the track has always been a solid place for the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing driver. He’s the only driver to finish all three races at the circuit in the top five.

ALEX BOWMAN: Bowman muscled out a fourth-place finish in a wild Bristol race last week. He’s also been sneaky consistent on the Austin road course, owning an average finish of 4.33, his best of all tracks.

SHANE VAN GISBERGEN: Not only will this weekend be SVG’s first time racing at COTA, but it’s also his first of seven races on the Cup schedule this season. It will be interesting to see how he stacks up with the rest of the field for the first road-course race of the season after a handful of Xfinity races under his belt and added background knowledge of the Cup car.

CHRIS BUESCHER: Look, it may be the second straight week Buescher has been a driver to watch, but the stats show he might know a thing or two around a track like COTA. He finished eighth there last year, and his worst finish in the last 11 road-course races is only 11th.

MARTIN TRUEX JR.: Of all the different tracks the Cup Series has raced on so far in 2024, Truex has been the only constant. He currently has the best average finish among drivers through the first five races (8.6), and he has finished in the top 10 in three out of the last five road-course races.


Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.

FinishCar NumberDriver
145Tyler Reddick
29Chase Elliott
35Kyle Larson
424William Byron
520Christopher Bell
654Ty Gibbs
71Ross Chastain
817Chris Buescher
934Michael McDowell
1016Shane van Gisbergen
1119Martin Truex Jr.
1248Alex Bowman
1311Denny Hamlin
148Kyle Busch
1513AJ Allmendinger
1612Ryan Blaney
172Austin Cindric
1899Daniel Suárez
1922Joey Logano
2014Chase Briscoe
2123Bubba Wallace
223Austin Dillon
236Brad Keselowski
247Corey LaJoie
2551Justin Haley
2641Ryan Preece
2747Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
2810Noah Gragson
2938Todd Gilliland
3043Erik Jones
3121Harrison Burton
3215Kaz Grala
3371Zane Smith
3442John H. Nemechek
354Josh Berry
3677Carson Hocevar
3750Kamui Kobayashi
3831Daniel Hemric
3966Timmy Hill