Racing Insights: All-in for Denny Hamlin to go back-to-back in Virginia

Editor’s note: Updated projection after Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions.

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Setting the stage for short-track action at Martinsville

After plenty of side-by-side action last weekend, get ready for more bumping and banging as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Martinsville Speedway this Sunday for the Cook Out 400 (3 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN Radio, Sirius XM NASCAR Radio).

Racing Insights predicts Denny Hamlin to notch back-to-back wins in his home state and earn his third short-track triumph of the season.

While it’s been nearly a decade since Hamlin last visited Victory Lane at Martinsville, the Virginia native still runs well there consistently. He netted two top-five finishes there last year (fourth place in spring and third in fall) and has led the most laps at Martinsville in the Nex Gen era at 395. Plus, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have set the pace when it comes to short-track racing this season with Hamlin’s No. 11 machine leading the charge with wins at Bristol and Richmond.

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Following Hamlin in the projections are Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney (up one spot after practice and qualifying), Christopher Bell and Martin Truex Jr. in the top five. Chase Briscoe (up four spots), Joey Logano, William Byron, Chase Elliott and Ty Gibbs round out the top 10.

With another short-track race on tap and little room to maneuver around, the restarts will be a key to watch this Sunday.

OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

RYAN BLANEY: Blaney has no top-10 finishes in the last three races. However, Martinsville is essentially his home away from home. His 9.0 average finish there is the best among active drivers, and he owns seven top-five finishes in the last 10 races at the Virginia track. He also earned a clutch win at the track last fall en route to his championship.

CHRISTOPHER BELL: Once again, Bell has been quietly consistent to start the year. Since his win at Phoenix, he has rattled off three top-10 finishes, two of which came at short tracks (10th at Bristol and sixth at Richmond). Bell is also no stranger to Victory Lane at Martinsville, as he led 150 laps in a playoff win there in 2022.

CHASE ELLIOTT: Byron and Larson are drivers to watch from the Hendrick camp, especially with Martinsville being a key race for the organization. However, it will be interesting to see how Elliott fares after a solid Richmond weekend. Elliott has six stage wins at Martinsville, which is tied with Hamlin for the most. Elliott also ranks second in most laps run inside the top five at Martinsville in the Next Gen car with 939.

CHASE BRISCOE: You’ll hear him as a sleeper pick all week, but his stats at Martinsville speak for themselves. Briscoe finished fifth and fourth in last season’s races, and he ranks fourth in laps run inside the top five with 721. In the Next Gen era, Briscoe is tied with Joey Logano for third-most points scored at Martinsville with 157.

JOSH BERRY: This is more of a wild card to watch given Berry doesn’t have many stats to go off of in a Cup car at Martinsville. Looking at the No. 4 team’s performance at short tracks this year, Berry and Co. have shown speed and are fresh off a successful Richmond weekend. It will be interesting to see if Berry can turn in another solid finish on Sunday.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE COOK OUT 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.