Racing Insights: Kyle Larson to shine in the ‘Sunflower State’

After Denny Hamlin conquered the Monster Mile at Dover Motor Speedway last weekend, Racing Insights has its sight set on Kyle Larson responding with a win in the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway this Sunday (3 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN Radio, Sirius XM NASCAR Radio).

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As proven in the Texas projections a few weeks ago, Larson dominates on 1.5-mile tracks. Owning the most wins (three) and second-highest point total (592) at intermediate tracks in the Next Gen era, Larson has posted a win, four top-five finishes and led 475 laps in his last six races at Kansas Speedway. Over the two races last season, Larson led the most laps at Kansas with 184, which was close to doubling Hamlin’s second-ranked 97 laps led. With Hamlin now stacking his third win of the year, there’s no doubt Larson will look to get the upper hand this week.

Following Larson in the projections is Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr., Larson’s Hendrick counterpart William Byron with 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick rounding out the top five. Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, pole winner Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney and Bubba Wallace complete the projected top 10.

As competition heats up in the thick of the season, anticipation mounts for a Midwestern showdown this weekend at Kansas.

OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

DENNY HAMLIN: Hamlin’s win last week sets him up for the three-peat he’s eyeing to complete before the All-Star Race. Kansas is a great track for him, as he’s currently riding a streak of five top-five finishes at the circuit. As an added bonus, Hamlin has won three of the last nine Kansas races, and his four career wins there rank most all-time at the speedway.

TYLER REDDICK: Reddick won Kansas last fall and the No. 45 Toyota has won three of the last four races at the circuit. Reddick has been a force so far on intermediate tracks. He is the only driver to finish in the top five at both true 1.5-mile races this year (second at Las Vegas, fourth at Texas), giving him an average finish of 3.0 on intermediates.

BUBBA WALLACE: Don’t sleep on the 23XI crew this weekend, as the organization has posted some of its best numbers at the track. The same goes for Wallace. His last win was at Kansas and he’s finished in the top 10 in three of the four Next Gen races at the speedway.

MARTIN TRUEX JR.: Given his consistency week after week, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Truex run up front. His average running position of 8.87 ranks second-best and his average finish of 9.36 is the best among full-time drivers. Plus, 1.5-mile tracks used to be his bread and butter with 12 career wins on those tracks.

KYLE BUSCH: Busch managed to turn in his second top-five finish of the season last weekend at Dover. He will aim to keep up the momentum this weekend at Kansas where he’s tallied four top-five finishes in his last nine races.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE ADVENTHEALTH 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.