Editor’s Note: Racing Insights’ playoff projections use a combination of current standings and historical performance at upcoming tracks to determine the probability of each driver winning or making the playoffs on points.
With the Cup Series Playoffs on the mind throughout the season, what if there was a way to project how the 16-driver field could look before each race weekend?
It now exists via Racing Insights. From now until the start of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, “The Field of 16” will give fans a weekly look at where their favorite drivers could potentially land in the postseason field — and the likelihood of having a shot at the Bill France Cup.
Here’s this week’s update on the projections heading into Darlington Raceway.
DRIVERS LOCKED IN
With multiple wins in 2024 already, Kyle Larson, William Byron and Denny Hamlin are safely into the Cup playoffs with 100% probability. Larson became the third driver of the 2024 season to become a multitime winner after outdueling Chris Buescher by 0.001 seconds at Kansas Speedway in the closest Cup finish ever. Larson has the advantage over Byron and Hamlin in points as Hamlin sits 56 points behind Larson while Byron has a lot of ground to make up on his Hendrick Motorsports teammate as he sits 105 points behind Larson.
DRIVERS LIKELY IN
Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick and Daniel Suárez each have one win so far. Reddick and Elliott are in good shape in case there are more than 16 winners in 2024 as both are in the top five in points, but Bell and Suárez have been inconsistent so far this season. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota is 13th in points while Suárez is 18th.
Martin Truex Jr. is well in the playoff picture, sitting second in the Cup Standings, 29 points back of Larson. Defending champion Ryan Blaney is sixth in points and Ross Chastain currently rounds out the top 10.
Buescher was an inch off a provisional playoff berth for the second year in a row but is still in good shape 11th in points. Ty Gibbs has been in a lull lately but is still eighth in points despite just one top-10 result since Richmond.
LAST 4 IN
Quite the shift in Racing Insights’ Last 4 In as Alex Bowman has jumped from the first driver out of the projected playoff field to the top of this bubble group. It’s for good reason as Bowman has flown under the radar sitting ninth in points and racked up a third consecutive top 10 last weekend at Kansas.
Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano remain stagnant despite a pair of solid runs last Sunday from both Busch and Keselowski. Logano has yet to find stable footing as his 34th-place tally at Kansas was his fourth straight finish outside the top 10.
FIRST 4 OUT
After a solid stretch of results from Circuit of The Americas to Texas, Bubba Wallace has fallen out of the projected playoff field after consecutive DNFs at Talladega and Dover, followed by a 17th-place effort at Kansas. Talladega and Kansas were among the No. 23 Toyota driver’s bread and butter, but now with those tracks not appearing until the postseason, Wallace is going to need a solid stretch in the Carolinas to turn the tide back in his favor.
Michael McDowell recovered from a final-stage incident Sunday to collect a top-10 result to see his probability rise. Meanwhile, rookie Josh Berry jumped Erik Jones in the playoff picture after Jones sat out the last two races due to injury.
WHO CAN SHAKE UP PLAYOFF PICTURE AT DARLINGTON?
Much has been made of Keselowski’s over 100-race winless drought but this could very well change Sunday as he’s scored three consecutive top 10s at Darlington. No driver has scored top 10s in all four of the Next Gen races at the track “Too Tough to Tame,” and Keselowski is one of just five drivers with three of them.
MORE: Racing Insights predicts Darlington | 2024 Cup Series schedule
Jones returns from injury this weekend and Darlington has been his playground with two wins at the track. He finished 10th in last year’s Southern 500.
Before each race weekend, check back into The Field of 16 to see the latest projections of the 2024 Cup Series playoff field.