Editor’s Note: Racing Insights’ playoff projections use a combination of current standings and historical performance at upcoming tracks to determine the probability of each driver winning or making the playoffs on points.
With the Cup Series Playoffs on the mind throughout the season, what if there was a way to project how the 16-driver field could look before each race weekend?
It now exists via Racing Insights. From now until the start of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, “The Field of 16” will give fans a weekly look at where their favorite drivers could potentially land in the postseason field — and the likelihood of having a shot at the Bill France Cup.
Here’s this week’s update on the projections heading into World Wide Technology Raceway.
NOTABLE PROBABILITY SHIFTS POST-CHARLOTTE
| Driver | Before Loudon | Entering Nashville | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Buescher | 67.32% | 85.72% | +18.40 |
| Ty Gibbs | 85.47% | 90.08% | +4.61 |
| Bubba Wallace | 29.21% | 22.11% | -7.10 |
| Alex Bowman | 86.37% | 70.11% | -16.26 |
DRIVERS SOLIDLY IN PLAYOFF PICTURE
Eight drivers are provisionally locked into the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs, with four of those guaranteed as Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, William Byron and Christopher Bell have all won multiple times this season.
Charlotte saw quite the shakeup in the Cup standings as Larson fell to third after not starting the Coca-Cola 600 and being ineligible to earn driver points for the event. Hamlin assumed a five-point lead at the top of the table over his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Martin Truex Jr.
Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Daniel Suárez and Brad Keselowski have all snagged a victory each, while Truex, Ty Gibbs, Ross Chastain and Alex Bowman all see their playoff probabilities increase to over 90% as they continue to post top 10 after top 10.
LAST 4 IN
It’s nervy times if you are near the current playoff bubble as those within the top 12 continue to gap themselves from everyone else. While all winless, the hand should be hovering over the panic button for Team Penske as the past two Cup champions continue to struggle in 2024. Blaney has suffered early exits in the past two events at Darlington and Charlotte, while Logano just hasn’t found speed over the past few months.
Chris Buescher’s probability fell over 10% from Charlotte. However, he’s had the speed over the past month, and it’s only a matter of time before luck is on the side of the No. 17 RFK Racing team in the form of finding Victory Lane this season.
Bubba Wallace continues to creep up the projected playoff field and is doing so at the right time as the summer months are when the No. 23 team usually hits its stride.
FIRST 4 OUT
Kyle Busch now falls out of the projected 16-driver field after another forgettable performance last Sunday. Though he’s been slightly faster than Logano this season, it might take a win for the 2015 and 2019 Cup titleholder to go for his third championship in 2024.
Chase Briscoe, Michael McDowell and Josh Berry remain in the mix as their on-track performances continue to improve. Berry mixed it up with top contenders last Sunday before rain halted the Coke 600 and was able to bring the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing team its second consecutive top 10.
WHO CAN SHAKE UP PLAYOFF PICTURE AT WWT RACEWAY?
Going with one of Busch or Logano. The pair of champions split the first two Cup races at World Wide Technology Raceway and are the only drivers with top fives in both events. It’s safe to say that this weekend is a must-win for both drivers as they’ve shown they can at least be in contention at the egg-shaped oval.
MORE: Racing Insights predicts WWTR | 2024 Cup Series schedule
Before each race weekend, check back into The Field of 16 to see the latest projections of the 2024 Cup Series playoff field.