The Field of 16: Projecting the Cup Series Playoffs entering Sonoma

Editor’s Note: Racing Insights’ playoff projections use a combination of current standings and historical performance at upcoming tracks to determine the probability of each driver winning or making the playoffs on points.

With the Cup Series Playoffs on the mind throughout the season, what if there was a way to project how the 16-driver field could look before each race weekend?

It now exists via Racing Insights. From now until the start of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, “The Field of 16” will give fans a weekly look at where their favorite drivers could potentially land in the postseason field — and the likelihood of having a shot at the Bill France Cup.

Here’s this week’s update on the projections heading into Sonoma Raceway.

NOTABLE PROBABILITY SHIFTS POST-GATEWAY

DRIVERS SOLIDLY IN PLAYOFF PICTURE

Nine drivers are provisionally locked into the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs, with four of those guaranteed as Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, William Byron and Christopher Bell have all won multiple times this season.

Gateway saw a surprise as Austin Cindric pulled off the upset as his Team Penske counterpart Ryan Blaney ran out of fuel on the final lap. Now, there are more questions than answers as to who will snag the remaining seven spots up for grabs.

Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski and Daniel Suárez have also collected a single victory so far in 2024 but Suárez has seen a slight dip in his probability as he sits 19th in points amid a pretty lackluster season outside of his Atlanta win and would be the odd man out in the case a 17th winner emerges.

Martin Truex Jr. and Ty Gibbs remain with the highest probabilities of winless drivers so far as the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates currently sit more than 100 points above the elimination line.

LAST 4 IN

If there wasn’t some tension for these drivers before, there sure is now. As some of the sport’s biggest names sit closest to the bubble. Blaney was four corners away from locking a playoff berth until fuel pressure was nullified from the No. 12 Ford. As it stands, the defending Cup champ is nowhere near safe as three consecutive finishes outside the top 20 have put the team behind.

Same goes for Blaney’s teammate and two-time series champion Joey Logano, who finished fifth at Gateway but is amid a dismal season with an average finish just shy of 17th. The Penske stable is known for turning it on in the latter stages of the season but both teams have a hill to climb amid a group of drivers all capable of winning at any track.

Alex Bowman and Bubba Wallace did not have the speed last weekend, and each saw their probabilities drop significantly. The late spring, early summer slate also doesn’t favor either competitor.

FIRST 4 OUT

It’s no secret that Chris Buescher and Kyle Busch need to win soon. Buescher has been much closer to finding that win (0.001 seconds, to be specific) than the 2015 and 2019 series titleholders. Busch has been fast on intermediate tracks this season and a top 10 at COTA earlier this year could bode well for the No. 8 team this weekend at Sonoma.

Michael McDowell and Chase Briscoe remain in the picture as Briscoe is just 10 points below Buescher at the cutline entering Sonoma while McDowell has a plethora of road courses and another superspeedway event before the 16-driver field locks in.

WHO CAN SHAKE UP PLAYOFF PICTURE AT SONOMA?

McDowell and Buescher are the ones to watch here, but the repave could change that this weekend at the road course. Buescher is the only driver to have top fives in both Next Gen races at Sonoma while McDowell has finished third and seventh. The No. 34 team won at a road course last year to make the playoffs so it should come as no surprise if they do it again on Sunday.

MORE: Racing Insights predicts Sonoma | 2024 Cup Series schedule

Before each race weekend, check back into The Field of 16 to see the latest projections of the 2024 Cup Series playoff field.