After Ryan Blaney’s dominant performance in the inaugural Cup race at Iowa, the series now gears up for a return to New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the USA Today 301 this Sunday (2 p.m. ET, USA, PRN Radio, Sirius XM NASCAR Radio).
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According to the advanced metrics, Denny Hamlin is expected to win this weekend at New Hampshire, marking both his fourth victory of the year and his fourth career win at the track.
Hamlin’s stats at NHMS are not just consistent but dominant. In his 30 career starts there, Hamlin has finished in the top two nine times. In the last five contests there, Hamlin has finished in the top 10. If we peel back even further, he’s finished in the top 15 over the last 12 New Hampshire races.
While Hamlin has yet to crack a top-five finish at the circuit in the Next Gen era, he does have the third-most wins since the start of the 2022 season (eight) and is tied with three other drivers for the most top-five finishes this season with seven. Plus, he led the second-most laps this season (607). All signs point to collecting another win soon.
Following Hamlin in the projections are Team Penske’s Blaney, Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Martin Truex Jr. and the Hendrick Motorsports pair of William Byron and Chase Elliott. Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Tyler Reddick complete the projected top 10.
OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH
MARTIN TRUEX JR.: With Truex set to retire from full-time racing at the end of 2024, it wouldn’t be right to see him walk away without one more trip to Victory Lane. At New Hampshire in the Next Gen era, he has won all four stages and led 426 out of 602 laps (71%).
CHASE ELLIOTT: Elliott is having a career year. He grabbed the points lead after Iowa, and his 9.12 average finish — a career high through 17 races — remains the best in the series. While no Hendrick driver has won at the circuit since 2012, with the season Elliott is having, that could change Sunday.
BUBBA WALLACE: Wallace is in a tight battle with Logano for the final playoff spot. Sunday presents a prime opportunity for him to either provisionally lock into the playoffs or extend his six-point lead over the two-time champ. He has two top-10 finishes at NHMS in the Next Gen era.
TY GIBBS: Four of the last eight New Hampshire winners tallied their first win of the season. Gibbs is still in search of his first career victory. Lucky for him, the New England facility is the track the JGR camp excels at, with the last two winners being Truex and Christopher Bell.
JOSH BERRY: The No. 4 Ford was firing on all cylinders last week at Iowa. Berry led 32 laps and scored his third top-10 finish of the season. Expect the momentum to keep rolling at another flat track this weekend.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR USA TODAY 301
Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.
| Finish | Car Number | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 3 | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 4 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 5 | 24 | William Byron |
| 6 | 5 | Kyle Larson |
| 7 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 8 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 9 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 10 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 11 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 12 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 13 | 14 | Chase Briscoe |
| 14 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 15 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 16 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 17 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 18 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 19 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 20 | 34 | Michael McDowell |
| 21 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 22 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 23 | 4 | Josh Berry |
| 24 | 41 | Ryan Preece |
| 25 | 51 | Justin Haley |
| 26 | 10 | Noah Gragson |
| 27 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 28 | 38 | Todd Gilliland |
| 29 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 30 | 21 | Harrison Burton |
| 31 | 7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 32 | 31 | Daniel Hemric |
| 33 | 16 | Ty Dillon |
| 34 | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 35 | 71 | Zane Smith |
| 36 | 15 | Kaz Grala |