The Field of 16: Projecting the Cup Series Playoffs entering Pocono

Editor’s Note: Racing Insights’ playoff projections use a combination of current standings and historical performance at upcoming tracks to determine the probability of each driver winning or making the playoffs on points.

With the Cup Series Playoffs on the mind throughout the season, what if there was a way to project how the 16-driver field could look before each race weekend?

It now exists via Racing Insights. From now until the start of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, “The Field of 16” will give fans a weekly look at where their favorite drivers could potentially land in the postseason field — and the likelihood of having a shot at the Bill France Cup.

Here’s this week’s update on the projections heading into Pocono Raceway.

NOTABLE PROBABILITY SHIFTS POST-CHICAGO

DRIVERS SOLIDLY IN PLAYOFF PICTURE

Twelve drivers are provisionally locked into the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs, with four of those guaranteed as Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, William Byron and Christopher Bell have all won multiple times this season.

With six races remaining in the regular season, Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott are in a hotly contested battle for the regular-season crown as Larson leads Elliott by a narrow 11 points for the 15 bonus playoff tallies entering the postseason.

Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Austin Cindric, Daniel Suárez, defending champ Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano and most recently, Alex Bowman, each have a win in 2024. With just four spots remaining and multiple surprise winners already this year, it has created one of the tightest bubbles in the playoff era.

LAST 4 IN

2024 is inching closer and closer to another potential nightmare for Martin Truex Jr. where he’s high up in the point standings but without a win, is left out of the playoffs with 16 different winners like there was in 2022. The No. 19 driver in his final season would probably prefer a victory before Atlanta in September to reassure his position before it’s too late.

A big points day for Ty Gibbs sees a bump in his playoff probability but there could be cause for concern that winners emerge beneath him in the playoff picture and steal a spot from him come September. Gibbs failed to score top 10s at Daytona and Richmond, but a runner-up in the spring at Darlington could mean the second-year Cup driver may have to pull off a clutch performance during Labor Day weekend to make the top-16 cut.

If you’re predicting the 16-driver field at the start of the season, Ross Chastain probably is among the first names you mention. However, back-to-back incidents at Nashville and Chicago really are putting the No. 1 Trackhouse stable in murky waters as the postseason draws near. We’ve seen Chastain pull off crazy stunts to put himself ahead and it may take something similar to put both Trackhouse cars in the 10-race hunt for the Bill France Cup.

Chris Buescher has made it clear the last few weeks that he isn’t interested in playing for points. The No. 17 RFK Racing driver has been right there for multiple wins this season and the Prosper, Texas native is honed in on Victory Lane before September rolls around. It probably helps that last year he won three of the last five regular-season events.

FIRST 4 OUT

It’s clear that all the pressure is on Bubba Wallace and Kyle Busch.

For Busch, a two-time series champ shouldn’t be on the outside looking in but one could chalk this up as his worst Cup season ever. Meanwhile, the chip on Wallace’s shoulder continues to weigh heavier and heavier as Reddick continues to finish in the top five while the No. 23 is stuck somewhere between 11th and 20th any given week.

Daytona, Richmond and Michigan are all tracks where Wallace is more than capable of winning that, and he probably will have to in order to make his second consecutive playoff appearance.

Pocono feels like a make-or-break weekend for the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing team as Busch is a four-time winner at the “Tricky Triangle.”

WHO CAN SHAKE UP PLAYOFF PICTURE AT POCONO?

With Pocono being a highly technical track, it takes experience to win in Long Pond and at the playoff bubble, it’s Busch with the most realistic shot at winning Sunday. A long green-flag run during the final stage could create a scramble on fuel mileage in the closing laps that could cause a surprise winner but if all goes according to plan, the No. 8 driver is the only one that can truly cause another rift in the top 16.

MORE: Racing Insights predicts Pocono | 2024 Cup Series schedule

Before each race weekend, check back into The Field of 16 to see the latest projections of the 2024 Cup Series playoff field.