Brickyard 400 betting report: Should bettors be patient on Denny Hamlin?

Denny Hamlin’s status as the clear favorite to win Sunday’s Brickyard 400 is justified, but bettors may want to take a wait-and-see approach on the No. 11 Toyota.

Priced in the +300 to +400 range during early wagering, Hamlin’s odds could lengthen over the weekend if his performance in Friday’s practice and Saturday’s qualifying don’t meet expectations.

Here are odds as of Thursday from three prominent sportsbooks – Westgate SuperBook, DraftKings and BetMGM.

Driver	SuperBook	DraftKings	BetMGM
Denny Hamlin	+350	+400	+375
Kyle Larson	+600	+600	+575
Ryan Blaney	+800	+750	+800
Brad Keselowski	+800	+750	+850
Chase Elliott	+1200	+900	+1000
William Byron	+1200	+1000	+1100
Tyler Reddick	+1200	+1100	+1200
Christopher Bell	+1400	+1100	+1200
Martin Truex Jr.	+1400	+1400	+1400
Joey Logano	+1600	+1400	+1500
Chris Buescher	+1800	+1500	+1800
Ty Gibbs	+1800	+1700	+1600

Since this is the first NASCAR Cup Series race around Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s 2.5-mile oval since 2020, there’s plenty of uncertainty ahead of the 2024 version of the event.

“The field has changed, and the car has changed,” Ed Salmons, VP of risk management at Las Vegas’ Westgate SuperBook, told NASCAR.com this week. “We have a different car than we had back then.

Maybe this car will race differently at this track.”

RELATED: Indy schedule | Full Brickyard 400 odds

Jim Sannes, managing editor of digital media at FanDuel Research, agrees that Hamlin is the prominent favorite this weekend, but his model doesn’t quite get him to such short prices. Hamlin wins 16.2% of Sannes’ race simulations, which converts to +517 odds.

Sannes is hoping for a less-than-stellar qualifying session for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver. Track position figures to play a major role on Sunday, which means odds will adjust after qualifying on Saturday.

“The optimism around Hamlin is fully justified,” Sannes said in a direct message. “… He has had speed at every relevant track (Pocono, Michigan), and it’s clear this team is prioritizing a win this weekend. I’d love for him to be just middling on Saturday so I could potentially scoop him at more favorable odds post-qualifying.”

NASCAR analysts — and Hamlin himself — believe what we saw at Pocono Raceway last week will translate to what transpires in Indy on Sunday.

Hamlin’s car may have been the best at the “Tricky Triangle,” but boosted by timely pit strategy, Ryan Blaney went on to win The Great American Getaway 400. Hamlin led 31 laps, won Stage 2, amassed 54 points and finished second.

“I actually don’t think Hamlin is overvalued this week given what we saw at Pocono last week and his consistent speed,” Todd Fuhrman, co-host of the Bet The Board podcast and a former Las Vegas oddsmaker, said in an email. “If Blaney hadn’t been able to undercut Stage 2, we’d be talking about the 11 car looking for back-to-back wins. Denny has also emphasized the importance of this race, so I get why books are keeping his price this short.”

“These two races are like almost clones of each other,” Salmons observed about Indy and Pocono. “They have two long straightaways, and ultimately, they kind of play the same.”

Eyes on another Toyota

Both Sannes and Fuhrman mentioned Martin Truex Jr. as another driver to watch this weekend. Truex is priced at +1400 odds, per Thursday’s betting market consensus.

“I’m pretty far above market on Martin Truex Jr.,” Sannes said. “His results on the Indy oval are miserable, but he had some bad luck the final few years before they transitioned to the road course. I’m guessing that’s why his odds here are longer, but someone with his speed shouldn’t be +1400 or +1200. He’s third in my model with 11.7% win odds (+755), trailing just Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson.”

Fuhrman is also interested in the No. 19.

“Martin Truex Jr showed a ton of speed last week,” he said, “(although that) didn’t translate to passing on race day, so if his numbers drift, that catches my eye.”

Early action

“We’ve had bets kind of all over the place,” Salmons said Tuesday, characterizing early Brickyard 400 wagering.

While Las Vegas bettors played Hamlin at +400 and +350 down to +300, there were no takers at +450 in the eight other states in which SuperBook USA operates (the SuperBook runs on a different system in Nevada).

Salmons also wrote early bets on Chase Elliott at +1400, Kyle Larson at +700 and Ty Gibbs at +2000.

“He gets bet every week,” Salmons said of the No. 54 Toyota.

In matchup props, Blaney was bet over Brad Keselowski, prompting moves in the outright market of Blaney down to +700 in Keselowski up to +1000.

That’s a price on the Pocono winner Fuhrman doesn’t seem interested in.

“I will say the market has adjusted plenty off Blaney’s win last Sunday, when we consider he was 17-1 last week compared to a consensus of 8 we’re seeing for the Brickyard,” he said.

Late action

The adjustments oddsmakers are likely to make after qualifying on Saturday could create value for bettors, according to our handicappers.

“Track position will be huge, but there should be some opportunity to find a few fast cars on alternate strategies at decent prices starting deeper in the field especially in the derivative markets,” Furhman said.

“My guess is that I’ll wind up having more action post-qualifying simply because not many drivers are values for me right now,” said Sannes. “I’m effectively in line with market on Hamlin, Larson, and William Byron, but not quite enough to bet them, a ton of win equity from the rest of the pack. It’s possible more value pops up post-qualifying.”

Marcus DiNitto manages a sports betting partnership with The Sporting News. NASCAR is one of the many sports Marcus enjoys wagering on. Follow him on Twitter; do not follow his picks.