Strategy, risks and Richmond: Mystery looms over tire-choice trial run

RICHMOND, Va. — After a 45-minute practice and a smattering of qualifying laps in Saturday’s preliminaries, the introduction of tire-compound choices to NASCAR Cup Series racing at Richmond Raceway remains a strategy head-scratcher.

Cup Series teams will have two types of Goodyear rubber to choose from in Sunday’s Cook Out 400 (6 p.m. ET, USA Network, NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) — seven sets of baseline “prime” tires (six for the race, plus one transferred from qualifying) and two sets of “option” tires. The yellow-lettered primes are more durable over a longer run, while the red-lettered options have more short-term grip and more rapid wear.

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When teams choose to bolt on the option tires could decide both stage wins and the overall victory. How the race plays out with caution periods will be crucial to the decision-making process.

“Well, it is like every race: You tell me when the cautions are going to come out, and I’ll tell you the strategy you should use,” cracked Chris Gabehart, crew chief of Denny Hamlin’s pole-winning No. 11 Toyota. “Unfortunately, my caution Ouija Board is broken right now. I hope we fixed it over the two-week break. Certainly, I think you are going to leave them laying for the end of the race for the most part — now I won’t say — there may be some cars that need some points that might try to put a set on to steal a stage win or something like that, some of those cut-off cars potentially, but I think to win the race, you will have to leave them for the end of the race.”

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The tire-choice procedure was first used at the NASCAR All-Star Race in May at North Wilkesboro Speedway, but Sunday’s 400-lapper will be the first application in a points-paying event. Another key difference between the two events: Sunday’s race will be held on a worn, abrasive surface, a change from the freshly paved asphalt at the Wilkesboro track.

On Saturday, teams had both types of tires available for practice, but were required to qualify on the yellow-sidewall prime tires. Even with an expanded practice to learn about the tires’ nuances, question marks remain.

“I don’t have the answers yet. We have a lot of information to go through, I know that,” said Chris Buescher, who qualified seventh in the No. 17 RFK Racing Ford. “We need to look at our runs, our teammates’ runs, others, when they put reds on, when they put yellows on. There’s a lot of questions. The heat of the day, very sunny versus tomorrow’s night race. That made a big difference in North Wilkesboro with the reds. We blistered them in practice, I think a handful of teams did, and had no issues and ran in the entire race on reds, right? So I don’t think that’s going to be allowed here with the Richmond surface in the shape it is, but like I said, we have a lot of deciphering to do.”

The most recent Cup Series race at Richmond back in March was marked by three longer green-flag runs — 91 laps, 54 laps, and a late 159-lap stretch. The outcome, however, boiled down to a late-race yellow flag that eventually extended the race by two overtimes, and Hamlin got the jump on teammate Martin Truex Jr. in the final two-lap dash to the checkered.

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How will teams pick their spots Sunday? Saving a red-lettered set for a sprint to the end would be optimal, but a longer-run finish would defeat that stockpiling gambit.

“I mean, that’s the risk you always take, right, with tires,” said defending Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney, who starts 11th. “I mean, gosh, how many times have folks tried to stay out and they end with a sticker set in their pits, hoping for a caution, and they don’t get it, and it ruins their day. So that’s just the risk you take, and like I said, it’s going to be interesting to see if you’ve got one set left, and there’s 100 laps to the end. Are you going to throw on your final set? I don’t know. It just depends how much they fall off the cliff. … That’s why the crew chiefs get paid big bucks tomorrow.”

Leaving Richmond with an unused set of option tires in reserve could potentially leave a sour taste, said Truex, a three-time Richmond winner in his final Cup Series season. That bitter possibility, Truex says, is all part of the plan that NASCAR officials had when they decided to introduce another unknown into this weekend’s race procedures.

“Well, that’s the hard part. But you know, then if you don’t have them or if guys do, you’re going to get smoked,” Truex said, referring to a saved set of reds. “So it’s just one of those … that’s the reason they did it. They’re going to put us in that position of, nobody knows what’s going to happen. … It’s not uncomfortable. They just like for things to happen that nobody sees coming. They don’t want us to be prepared for everything. They don’t want us to have the opportunity to know exactly what’s going to happen.”