Four of the last five winning strategies at Richmond Raceway included seven or more pit stops, taking four tires on each stop. The two recent winners each drove under 10 laps after their last stops, suggesting some similarities in achieving victory. But there’s a difference this time in Sunday’s Cook Out 400 (6 p.m. ET, USA, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) — the option tire.
Teams will get six sets of prime tires, two option tire sets — a softer, faster tire compound — and standard wet weather tires if needed. The choice in grip will enhance the strategy calls, especially with four more chances left to earn a spot in the Cup Series Playoffs.
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Denny Hamlin heads into Sunday as the betting favorite, just ahead of his Joe Gibbs Racing counterparts Christopher Bell and Martin Truex Jr. The updated Racing Insights projections give Bell, the No. 20 driver, a slight edge over Hamlin, the hometown driver.
Even with all the tire and strategy changes shaking up the competition, JGR drivers remain the top picks in projections. The team’s consistency is unparalleled at Richmond, amassing 19 wins across six different drivers — with 10 of those wins coming in the last 17 races. Hamlin is the most recent victor at the track, and 10 of his 54 career wins came in his home state of Virginia. As for Bell, he’s won the most stages this year and is two laps shy of leading 600 laps for the first time in a season. He’s put together one of his best regular seasons and is charging to the playoffs with a full head of steam. Finally, there’s Truex and Ty Gibbs, who each have a healthy gap over the elimination line but could win at any time to clinch.
DRIVERS TO WATCH
MARTIN TRUEX JR.: Five drivers have won a race in their final full-time season. Sunday is likely Truex’s best chance to make it six. He’s finished seventh or better in 10 of the last 11 Richmond races and was on the verge of winning there in the spring. He has the consistency to lean on and the talent to win there.
CHASE ELLIOTT: Elliott is not only 12 points behind his teammate Kyle Larson for the Regular Season Championship but also 12 markers back for the most points earned on short tracks in 2024. His fifth-place finish at Richmond in the spring sets the stage for a potential win, which is crucial if he wants those 15 regular-season bonus points for the playoffs.
JOEY LOGANO: Logano’s 2024 campaign took off after a runner-up finish at Richmond this past spring. He ranks third in most points scored on short tracks in 2024 and has four straight top 10s at Richmond. While he’s already locked into the playoffs, he’s still a candidate for a multi-win season.
JOSH BERRY: The short-track specialist can shake up the playoff picture on Sunday. Berry’s average finish on short tracks in a Cup car is 11.4. He will also have Rodney Childers atop the pit box, who has prepared cars to finish 15th or better in 19 of the last 20 Richmond races.
CHRIS BUESCHER: Still looking for a trip to Victory Lane, Buescher is 17 points to the good and there’s still time for him to catch fire before the playoffs. Over his last five races at Richmond, Buescher has earned a win and three top fives and should be in the mix on Sunday.
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RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE COOK OUT 400
Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.
| Finish | Car Number | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 2 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 3 | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 4 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 5 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 6 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 7 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 8 | 4 | Josh Berry |
| 9 | 24 | William Byron |
| 10 | 5 | Kyle Larson |
| 11 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 12 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 13 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 14 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 15 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 16 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 17 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 18 | 14 | Chase Briscoe |
| 19 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 20 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 21 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 22 | 38 | Todd Gilliland |
| 23 | 34 | Michael McDowell |
| 24 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 25 | 10 | Noah Gragson |
| 26 | 41 | Ryan Preece |
| 27 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 28 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 29 | 51 | Justin Haley |
| 30 | 7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 31 | 16 | Ty Dillon |
| 32 | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 33 | 21 | Harrison Burton |
| 34 | 71 | Zane Smith |
| 35 | 31 | Daniel Hemric |
| 36 | 15 | Riley Herbst |
| 37 | 66 | Parker Retzlaff |