Advance to Victory Lane: Thrills and surprises await in Daytona summer race

The stats show that Saturday night’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway (7:30 ET, NBC, Peacock, MRN Radio, SiriusXM, NBC Sports App) is set to be a wide-open thriller.

Who knows what we’re in store for at the “World Center of Racing,” a driver’s luck could change at any time. In Daytona’s last seven races, the driver who won led for 10 laps or fewer in six of those events. On the flip side, the driver who led the most laps often fell short, finishing 22nd or worse in five of the past six races. Proving Daytona’s wild nature is a recipe for thrilling upsets and unexpected twists.

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Additionally, in four of the last six summer Daytona races, the winner earned their first victory of the season, which is crucial given that Chris Buescher and Bubba Wallace are only separated by 16 points in the playoff standings. Not to mention former Daytona winners such as Kyle Busch, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Erik Jones and Justin Haley are in must-win scenarios for their playoff hopes.

While there’s still plenty to watch on the playoff bubble, the race for the Regular Season Championship is also leaving the top drivers with no margin for error as Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson are separated by 32 points — second-closest battle ever at this point in a season. Currently, the early projections only have Elliott and Reddick landing top fives, while Hamlin rounds out the top 10 and Larson is a projected 14th.

The advanced metrics favor Ryan Blaney to win at Daytona. Given he has an 11.3 average finish on drafting tracks in the Next Gen era — best of all drivers — it’s easy to understand why Racing Insights is high on the No. 12 driver heading into the weekend. Blaney is tied with William Byron, Wallace and Elliott for the third-best betting odds to win. He has four wins in drafting-style races and finished in the top two in 33% of the last 24 races on drafting tracks. Still, at Daytona, it’s anyone’s game.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

TYLER REDDICK: Reddick took over the regular-season points lead after his Michigan win. When factoring in his Duel win before the season at Daytona and his triumph at Talladega, Reddick could extend his points lead and remain in control going to Darlington.

WILLIAM BYRON: Byron has four drafting track wins, with two of those coming at Daytona and three being in the Next Gen car. In his last seven drafting races, he’s tallied six top 10s and has an average finish of 6.14 — both a series-best over that stretch.

KYLE BUSCH: Busch rallied to a top-five finish at Michigan, and while it’s been hard for the No. 8 crew to string together solid weeks this year, Busch has the experience to navigate a wild superspeedway race.

TODD GILLILAND: Seventy-four of Gilliland’s 121 laps led this year have been on superspeedways. With the career year he’s having and the speed Front Row Motorsports has shown on superspeedways, Gilliland could shock the field.

JOHN HUNTER NEMECHEK: Nemechek holds a 9.67 average finish at Daytona — 10th-best all-time. He also has finished 11th or better in five of his last seven drafting track starts.

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RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE COKE ZERO SUGAR 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.