Editor’s Note: Racing Insights’ playoff projections use a combination of current standings and historical performance at upcoming tracks to determine the probability of each driver winning or making the playoffs on points.
With the Cup Series Playoffs on the mind throughout the season, what if there was a way to project how the 16-driver field could look before each race weekend?
It now exists via Racing Insights. From now until the start of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, “The Field of 16” will give fans a weekly look at where their favorite drivers could potentially land in the postseason field — and the likelihood of having a shot at the Bill France Cup.
Here’s this week’s update on the projections heading into Daytona International Speedway.
NOTABLE PROBABILITY SHIFTS POST-MICHIGAN
| DRIVER | AT MICHIGAN | ENTERING DAYTONA | DIFFERENCE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Gibbs | 62.63% | 80.19% | +17.56 |
| Ross Chastain | 56.39% | 56.85% | +0.46 |
| Chris Buescher | 71.90% | 70.15% | -1.75 |
| Bubba Wallace | 71.12% | 63.26% | -7.86 |
DRIVERS SOLIDLY IN PLAYOFF PICTURE
After winning last week’s race at Michigan, Tyler Reddick has now jumped into first place in the Cup Series standings by 10 points over Chase Elliott. Reddick, driver of the No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota, has been the hottest driver in NASCAR this summer and on one of the most impressive runs in recent memory. Going back to the Coca-Cola 600, he’s finished inside the top 10 in every race except for Iowa.
Elliott (-10) and Kyle Larson (-32) remain in the mix for the coveted Regular Season Championship but all three had respective issues in Michigan. Larson took the biggest hit out of the bunch after starting a multicar wreck in Stage 2.
Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell and William Byron have all won multiple races this season, and while a regular-season title isn’t within grasp for the trio, they can still continue to rack up playoff points to position themselves well for the start of the postseason.
Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suárez and Austin Cindric each own a win and have locked in spots in the postseason. Both Suárez and Cindric return to the playoffs after missing out in 2023.
LAST 4 IN
With 16 unique winners not possible this year, Martin Truex Jr.’s 2022 nightmare will not repeat itself this season. However, a 77-point cushion is anything but safe, especially with Truex’s luck at superspeedways in his Cup career. He’s completed every lap at drafting tracks this season but only has six top 10s in 38 starts at the “World Center of Racing.”
Ty Gibbs had one of his most complete outings of 2024 at Michigan. A third-place finish moved him 39 points above the elimination line but experience is limited at Daytona for the Cup sophomore and he will need to rely on his Joe Gibbs Racing team to help get to the checkered flag with a clean race car.
Daytona may be best suited for the likes of Chris Buescher and Bubba Wallace. Both have produced results and won at drafting tracks in their Cup career, with Buescher being the defending Daytona summer race winner. Buescher was involved in the late Stage 2 crash with Larson and Wallace but the damage to the No. 17 RFK Racing Ford didn’t stop Buescher from finishing inside the top 10.
However, the damage to Wallace’s No. 23 Toyota kept him from finding speed the rest of the day at Michigan, and all he could was watch his teammate take the checkered flag while Gibbs finished not too far behind. Now, just one point below Ross Chastain for the final playoff spot, Wallace will have to manage, balance stage points and go for the win Saturday night.
FIRST 4 OUT
It appeared Chastain was on his way to a solid top-10 outing at Michigan until a spin in overtime parachuted him to a 25th-place finish. Now, Chastain only holds a single-point gap over Wallace entering Saturday night’s showdown. The driver of the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet has been in the mix late in Daytona races but he’s been on the short end of calamity more times than not with a 42% DNF rate at the 2.5-mile superspeedway.
Kyle Busch has had fast Chevrolets at Daytona since joining Richard Childress Racing in 2023. He nearly won his first Daytona 500 in Feb. 2023 and had a rocket in the season-opening race this year but couldn’t get to the front late and finished 12th. Busch and teammate Austin Dillon will have speed Saturday night, if they can put a complete race together, one of them could find their way into the postseason.
WHO CAN SHAKE UP PLAYOFF PICTURE AT DAYTONA?
Anybody.
That’s the beauty of the Daytona summer race taking place just before the postseason kicks off. If you are looking for specific drivers outside the playoff picture that have momentum heading into Saturday night, look no further than a pair of Spire Motorsports drivers Zane Smith and Carson Hocevar. Smith’s summer has been bountiful in the No. 71 Chevrolet, with two top 10s highlighted by a runner-up at Nashville. Hocevar enters Saturday night’s affair with back-to-back top 10s at Richmond and Michigan.
MORE: 2024 Cup Series schedule | How to get notified for 2025 schedule release
Before each race weekend, check back into The Field of 16 to see the latest projections of the 2024 Cup Series playoff field.