With the playoff field set, the hunt for the Bill France Cup is officially on and it all starts Sunday with the Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart at Atlanta Motor Speedway (3 p.m. ET, USA, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
With so much talk about the first round being a “wild-card” round, the trend of underdogs finding Victory Lane in the last few weeks could continue. Plus, last time the Cup circuit was in Atlanta, it was nothing short of spectacular. The question is: what kind of encore do we get after the last showing in the Peach State?
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Racing Insights sees the cream rising to the top in the Round of 16 opener, with seven playoff drivers in the projected top 10. Reigning champ Ryan Blaney is picked as the early winner. Given he fell short of a win by just 0.003 seconds back in February, it’s not a shock to see him as a favorite. Plus, his numbers on drafting tracks speak for themselves. On average, Blaney has scored 42 points per race at Atlanta since the reconfiguration, which is the most among playoff drivers. He also has scored the third most points on drafting tracks this season (116), behind William Byron (129) and Austin Cindric (135).
The next 10 races promise to be a postseason rarity in NASCAR history, and if the last two regular-season races are any telling of what we can expect in Atlanta, it’s going to be madness.
DRIVERS TO WATCH
WILLIAM BYRON: It’s been quiet since Byron rattled off three wins in the season’s first eight races, but the No. 24 can come alive this weekend. The 2024 Daytona 500 champ is a two-time Atlanta winner with four career drafting track wins.
BRAD KESELOWSKI: Speaking of drafting track wins, here’s a driver with seven of them. Keselowski was involved in the big wreck on Lap 2 last time out but notched a pair of top 10s in the two Atlanta races before that.
DANIEL SUÁREZ: The Trackhouse Racing stunned everyone, going three-wide to earn his playoff bid in a mesmerizing finish. Suárez is no stranger to finding speed at Atlanta. He’s finished first and second in the last two races there and has three top fives at the track since its reconfiguration — tied for most.
JOEY LOGANO: It was last year’s Atlanta spring race that Logano won the pole and led 140 laps en route to a win. He should be in the mix this week as he will no doubt want to make up for his early exit in last year’s playoffs and challenge for a third title.
AUSTIN CINDRIC: Really, all of Team Penske should be on watch this weekend. Let’s not forget the organization won half the races during the eight-week stretch from Cindric’s breakthrough win at World Wide Technology Raceway to the Brickyard 400 as it gained steam over the summer. Cindric also led 32 laps en route to a fourth-place effort last time at Atlanta.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE QUAKER STATE 400
Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.
| Finish | Car Number | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 2 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 24 | William Byron |
| 4 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 5 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 6 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 7 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 8 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 9 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 10 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 11 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 12 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 13 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 14 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 15 | 5 | Kyle Larson |
| 16 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 17 | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 18 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 19 | 7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 20 | 34 | Michael McDowell |
| 21 | 4 | Josh Berry |
| 22 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 23 | 38 | Todd Gilliland |
| 24 | 14 | Chase Briscoe |
| 25 | 51 | Justin Haley |
| 26 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 27 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 28 | 31 | Daniel Hemric |
| 29 | 10 | Noah Gragson |
| 30 | 41 | Ryan Preece |
| 31 | 21 | Harrison Burton |
| 32 | 71 | Zane Smith |
| 33 | 42 | John H. Nemechek |
| 34 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 35 | 15 | Kaz Grala |
| 36 | 78 | BJ McLeod |
| 37 | 44 | J.J. Yeley |
| 38 | 16 | Shane van Gisbergen |