As expected from the Goodyear tire test at Watkins Glen International, tire wear was at a premium during a pair of practice sessions on Saturday afternoon. Most cars experienced at least two seconds of fall-off during a 10-lap run. Tyler Reddick and Shane van Gisbergen were exceptions as both fell under the two-second barrier. But non-playoff drivers came to play in qualifying, with Ross Chastain earning his second career pole.
With the bulk of playoff drivers struggling in qualifying, it makes it much of a guessing game as to choosing the best fantasy lineup because many non-playoff drivers will be going strictly for the win while playoff drivers worry about stage points. Let’s give it a whirl.
RELATED: Set your Fantasy Live lineups
Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Shane van Gisbergen
Starter 2: Ross Chastain
Starter 3: Austin Cindric
Starter 4: Martin Truex Jr.
Starter 5: Michael McDowell
Garage pick: Tyler Reddick
NEXT IN LINE: William Byron, Kyle Larson, Daniel Suárez, Chris Buescher
RISING: With eight finishes of 24th or worse in the last nine races, Truex desperately needs a good run at a track he’s had past success at. The 2017 Cup champion has six top-10 finishes in the last seven races at WGI, highlighted by a 2017 victory. Should the No. 19 team manage the tire wear, it’s a prime opportunity to earn the most stage points among playoff drivers as he starts ahead of the other 15.
Alex Bowman has become a serious road-course threat. Not only did he win the series’ most recent road course at the Chicago Street Course, but he often excels at COTA and has scored the most points in the field this season on road courses. Yet, Bowman has pinpointed Watkins Glen as one of his worst tracks, having yet to crack the top 10 in the finishing order. He was the best of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers in qualifying, placing fourth.
FALLING: Byron was the best of the three Hendrick Motorsports drivers to previously win at Watkins Glen in qualifying, with the No. 24 Chevrolet starting in 11th. (Chase Elliott was 14th, and Kyle Larson was 20th.) The superstar team has won the last five Watkins Glen races but is facing an uphill battle entering Sunday.
With how much Ty Gibbs succeeds on road courses, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him hustle his way through the field from a 15th-place starting position. The No. 54 Toyota has been in contention for the win in two of the previous three road courses this season, with a pair of top-five finishes. However, Gibbs struggled with the handling of his car during practice, though the speed was comparable to the front runners.
FEATURED MATCHUPS:
Denny Hamlin vs. Chase Elliott: Neither driver secured the qualifying position they desired, but both could still score stage points with how the race strategy plays out. Hamlin believes if he gets a superb opening restart, he can drive to the top 10. But this is a heads-up battle, and Elliott has been in contention to win more often than the No. 11 machine. Staying with Elliott this weekend.
Kyle Larson vs. William Byron: So many playoff drivers had below-average qualifying runs, but none stick out more than Larson. The No. 5 will start mid-pack in 20th, while Byron was the second-best Hendrick car in 11th. A lot can happen over 90 laps at The Glen, but I’ll flip to the defending winner of this race in Byron.
Christopher Bell vs. Tyler Reddick: This one is interesting. Reddick looked to be lights-out in practice, ranking the best in one, five and 10-lap averages. One mishap in qualifying relegated Reddick to a 16th-place starting position. That was still better than Bell, who was a surprising 17th. The plan of action is to keep Reddick available in my lineup, believing he has one of the best cars in the field.
Austin Cindric vs. Ty Gibbs: With how the Round of 16 is set up, Cindric could capitalize massively with consecutive standout playoff performances. The No. 2 Ford looked sporty on Saturday, back to its 2022 ways on road courses. It’s hard to imagine Gibbs won’t progress from a disappointing qualifying effort, but I’ll flip for the third time in this set of four featured matchups.