When the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series schedule was announced in October 2023, it didn’t take long for the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs docket — and in particular, the Round of 16 — to quickly draw attention.
Assumptions popped up almost immediately. Atlanta Motor Speedway, Watkins Glen International and Bristol Motor Speedway — a drafting-style track, road course and short track, respectively — were bound to keep 2024 title hopefuls on their toes and create a bounty of scenarios that could jumble the postseason in as many ways as could be imagined.
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“The first round is the scariest it’s been in a long time,” Christopher Bell said during Cup Series Playoffs Media Day. “You know, with Atlanta, a superspeedway starting us off, we all know how that can go. And then we go to Watkins Glen, which should be a normal race track, but with the expected tire degradation with the tire change that we’ve had, I mean, it could be a Bristol-style race where people are wearing tires out really early and struggling to make laps and having to pit all the time. So that could be another wild-card race. And then Bristol, I think everybody’s expecting it to be more of the same as what we had in the spring. So, the first round could be very different than what we’ve seen in the past.”
Atlanta’s overtime fireworks, not to mention the unknowns of The Glen’s playoff debut, contributed to the fright. And in Watkins Glen’s case, a new tire compound prioritizing fall-off, combined with freshly recessed rumble strips, gave the entirety of the Cup field a different flavor than the road course had typically put forth during the circuit’s annual visit there. And with postseason implications now on the line, the tension was much more magnified.
And those tensions came to fruition, indeed. After the checkered flag waved in overtime, only two playoff drivers (Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric) finished inside the top 10. High-profile names, including Brad Keselowski, Tyler Reddick, William Byron and 2023 Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney, finished outside the top 25. The rest of the postseason field finished anywhere from 12th (Kyle Larson) to 24th (Harrison Burton).
So, what happened?
Cautions, for one. An opening-lap wreck involving Blaney, Keselowski, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell — all playoff drivers — was the first of seven yellows during Sunday’s 92-lap affair. The crash proved terminal for Blaney, and the No. 12 Team Penske Ford finished last in the field. Hamlin and Keselowski, meanwhile, were caught up in additional incidents, with the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota spinning out through the esses during the race’s final stage; Keselowski tangled with William Byron (another playoff driver) in Turn 2 during the race’s waning moments. Hamlin and Keselowski finished 23rd and 26th, respectively.
Next was strategy … and miscues on pit road. The decision whether to pit before the stage end and restart at the front of the field to retain track position — known as “flipping” the stages — versus staying out to collect valuable stage points and trading away track position was more than apparent in conjunction with the race yellows. For playoff drivers, the goal was clear: collect points. Stage 1’s conclusion saw eight playoff drivers collect stage points, while seven postseason pilots tallied points following Stage 2’s end under caution.
But issues on pit road could flip everything on its side, and such was the case for Larson and Keselowski after penalties forced them to the rear, thus opening them up to the possibility of being caught up in traffic … and perhaps trouble.
WATKINS GLEN: Blaney out after Lap 1 damage | Hamlin below elimination line following wrecks
When combining yellows, strategy shifts and pit-road blunders, Watkins Glen’s chaos can be quantified in numerics. Twelve of the 16 playoff drivers were “involved” in at least one of the two problem areas in question, with only Briscoe, Cindric, Alex Bowman and Ty Gibbs coming out of The Glen’s contest cleanly.
Ultimately, the effect on the playoff standings was stark, indeed. Of the 12 drivers currently above the elimination line, Cindric (plus-43) was the biggest gainer, vaulting from seventh in the playoff standings to just three points behind Bell (plus-46) for first among postseason drivers yet to clinch. Following him is Bowman (plus-41), two points behind the No. 2 Team Penske Ford. Daniel Suárez (despite getting stuck in the gravel in Stage 2) is up next in the playoff table (plus-36), and while he might not be inside the top five, Briscoe’s 27-point gain saw the No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford leap from last in the playoff standings to 11th, six points clear of the elimination line with one Round of 16 race to go.
With the shift up top, two former Cup Series champions and a perennial title contender now find themselves underneath the elimination line, with Hamlin (minus-6), Keselowski (minus-12), Martin Truex Jr. (minus-14) and Burton (minus-20) on the outside looking in. And while anything can go in the playoffs, needing to perform extremely well to the point of finding Victory Lane might be the only course of action for these drivers to survive the Round of 16’s onslaught.
Chaos was the expectation for this year’s playoffs, and as a track new to the postseason, Watkins Glen didn’t fail to shift this year’s playoff grid tremendously. With different tires and configuration changes to boot, the New York road course proved that no driver is safe.
MORE: Cup Series standings | Cup Series schedule
Saturday’s Round of 16 finale at Bristol Motor Speedway (7 p.m. ET, USA, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) is sure to deliver after its spring running saw unique tire situations dictate the race’s outcome.
There’s no question how much the Round of 16 has already delivered in the playoff-shaking department. After what we’ve already seen at Atlanta and Watkins Glen, when looking ahead to the upcoming Bristol contest – expecting the unexpected should be a given.