The Round of 16 delivered yet another dose of mayhem, with Chris Buescher playing spoiler and doing so in an all-time fashion at Watkins Glen. Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race (7 p.m. ET, USA, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) at Bristol Motor Speedway is shaping up to be an exciting wrap-up of a wild-card round with a handful of big names on the bubble and one last chance to advance.
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After practice and qualifying, Racing Insights expects the gladiators of Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin and Ty Gibbs to battle their way into the Round of 12 with projected top-five efforts. Other bubble drivers like Brad Keselowski and William Byron are predicted to be in the mix, with solid metrics pointing them to seventh- and ninth-place finishes, respectively.
Underdogs like Daniel Suárez and Austin Cindric have been riding momentum waves, rocketing up the standings the last two weeks with solid performances. However, coming in with projected results well outside of the top 15 is something to watch, especially if all the top dogs show up as Racing Insights expects. Still, with how they are seeded, it would take more than one herculean effort to knock one of them out.
As if tensions weren’t already high for an elimination race, because so many playoff drivers found trouble last week, there is more pressure for title hopefuls to have a clean day. One thing is for sure: The 12 drivers who move on will have mastered one chaotic round and be one step closer to championship glory.
MORE: Full starting lineup | Top Bristol story lines to watch
DRIVERS TO WATCH
DENNY HAMLIN: The 2024 playoffs started slowly and got worse for Hamlin last week at Watkins Glen after a Lap 1 wreck. The positive? Hamlin’s won the last two races at Bristol and owns top-10 finishes in six of the last eight Bristol races. Plus, out of the last eight short-track races, Hamlin has finished in the top three in six of them.
RYAN BLANEY: The reigning champ entered 45 markers to the good at The Glen; he left only 29 points above. His best finish in the Next Gen car on the high banks of Bristol is 16th and he has a career average finish of 19.5 at the track. It would still take a lot for Blaney to get bounced out, but someone has to fall if the advance metric expects drivers on the bubble to rise.
TY GIBBS: Gibbs will be making his 80th Cup start and is very much lurking toward a win. He’s finished in the top 10 in the last two Bristol races and also led north of 100 laps in each contest. The sophomore driver has also been able to stay clean and finish races with only two DNFs this year.
MARTIN TRUEX JR.: Bristol isn’t one of Truex’s best tracks, with only three top fives in 34 starts. However, in the Bristol race last year, he picked himself up and got out of a seven-point deficit in the Round of 16 closer. He will need a similar clutch factor again or lean on his veteran experience like he did in the spring to finish second.
JOSH BERRY: There are more playoff story lines and drivers to watch, but how about another spoiler? Berry came out the gates hot in the spring race, he started second and led 25 laps before finishing 12th with the wild tire fall-off that became a factor late in the race. The second reason Berry is strong at short tracks is crew chief Rodney Childers, a man who knows something about winning around this time of year.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE BASS PRO SHOPS NIGHT RACE
Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.
| Finish | Car Number | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 4 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 5 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 6 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 7 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 8 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 9 | 24 | William Byron |
| 10 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 11 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 12 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 13 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 14 | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 15 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 16 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 17 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 18 | 4 | Josh Berry |
| 19 | 34 | Michael McDowell |
| 20 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 21 | 14 | Chase Briscoe |
| 22 | 41 | Ryan Preece |
| 23 | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 24 | 7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 25 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 26 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 27 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 28 | 38 | Todd Gilliland |
| 29 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 30 | 51 | Justin Haley |
| 31 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger |
| 32 | 10 | Noah Gragson |
| 33 | 71 | Zane Smith |
| 34 | 21 | Harrison Burton |
| 35 | 31 | Daniel Hemric |
| 36 | 15 | Kaz Grala |
| 37 | 66 | Josh Bilicki |