1. Larson puts on a show once again — what can’t he do?
Kyle Larson finds a way to up the ante in yet another race, in a class of his own that we haven’t seen since a former fellow Hendrick Motorsports driver.
This past Saturday night under the lights at Bristol Motor Speedway, we witnessed perhaps the biggest butt-whoopin’ yet to be laid down this decade.
And as the series shifts to the Round of 12 this weekend with a return to Kansas Speedway, we’re reminded of what happened there during the spring visit, a little thing you might’ve heard about — the literal closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history.
Naturally, it was the same driver, Kyle Larson, emerging victoriously in each.
What can’t this guy do?
Dominance can be a rare and fleeting thing in this sport, with several drivers flirting with it over the past couple of decades — names like Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr. — but none quite knocking on the door of the Jimmie Johnson echelon, effortlessly established by the laid-back Californian during an unprecedented run of five straight titles from 2006-10.
Must be a California thing because no driver has felt as close to joining “Seven-Time” among NASCAR’s all-time greats the way the 32-year-old Elk Grove native currently does, and we’re likely still looking at a decade-plus of Larson racing at the sport’s highest level. But it’s also possible that he, himself, has not reached his highest level yet, which is about as disheartening for his competitors as the fact that he spotted the field an entire race and still only lost this year’s Regular Season Championship by a single point.
No. 5’s Bristol drubbing immediately brought to mind Truex’s dominant 2016 Coca-Cola 600 when he led 392 of 400 laps in NASCAR’s longest race. It’s possible Larson’s performance — particularly given the unknowns of the tire going into the race and the expected unpredictability, which he obliterated almost immediately — was even more impressive.
Larson’s 1.108 average running position at Bristol is the best in any race by any driver since October 2019, with his worst position under green being third place. After an uneven first two races to start the round, elimination was on the table for Larson at Bristol — that seems laughable to think about now, as it now seems a foregone conclusion he’ll ride this momentum all the way to Phoenix.
The 2021 champ’s Bristol beatdown is a continuation of a career defined by versatility, skill and pushing his machine to its limit — and beyond — while still keeping it (mostly) under control better than anybody else. From dirt tracks to speedways, short tracks to road courses, Larson has proven time and again that he can win anywhere, in any conditions.
With his Bristol win, Larson is now tied for the sixth-most playoff wins of all time, which is notable because the man he tied — MTJ — got nearly a decade-long head start on No. 5, making his first playoff appearance in 2007 to Larson’s postseason debut in 2016.
As we look ahead to the rest of the 2024 season, there just isn’t a case — at the moment, at least — for any driver other than Larson as the favorite for the championship. History is on his side, too. Only once has a driver seeded in the top three entering the Round of 12 failed to advance to the Round of 8 (though, it’s worth noting — it was him). Assuming he scoots through to that round, it shapes up as his best in the playoffs with wins at every track and those particular venues falling right into his general wheelhouse.
So, what can’t Kyle Larson do? At this point, it’s hard to say. He’s proven himself on every type of track, in multiple racing disciplines and against the best competition in the world. He’s broken records and won a championship. He isn’t just winning races; he’s redefining what’s possible in a race car. Whether he’ll admit it, his Bristol performance wasn’t just a victory; it was a statement. It was Larson at his best, doing what he does better than anyone else — putting on a show and making it look easy. Just like Johnson.
After Bristol, he’s left us all wondering absolutely nothing about his talent except just how high his ceiling might be.
And if there even is one.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
2. Good luck catching your breath — the Round of 12 could be even wilder
Grab your popcorn and maybe an oxygen tank because the Round of 12 is about to take your breath away and leave you gasping for more.
You know, we might owe Larson a bit of a thank you because the precedent for chaos and intensity set by the opening two races of the playoffs probably would’ve given us heart palpitations by Phoenix Raceway if it continued at Bristol and beyond.
Instead, it was almost soothing watching Larson tick off laps with calculated precision, settling things down a bit before they ramp up in a major way once again this weekend.
Kansas Speedway kicks off this crucial Round of 12, and if recent history is any indication, we could be looking at non-stop action right down to the last inch before the winner crosses the start/finish line — literally. The 1.5-mile Midwestern track has become a hotbed of last-lap drama and photo finishes in the Next Gen era, quickly turning into a favorite among drivers and an absolute can’t-miss show among fans. You’re going to hear non-stop about the finish from May this week, but don’t forget that the May 2023 race saw a record-shattering 37 lead changes — the most in a 400-mile race on a 1.5-mile track in Cup Series history.
Then again, it feels fairly certain that there’s one thing we can expect this weekend: That guy who just stomped the field is going to be the man to beat once again.
Larson has been absolutely dominant on 1.5-mile tracks this year, winning half of them while just adding to his overall excellence — the Hendrick Motorsports ace has twice as many wins on these tracks in the Next Gen era as any other driver. He boasts six straight top 10s at Kansas and a blistering 5.29 average finish there in Hendrick equipment. Larson could easily go from potential playoff elimination status heading into Bristol to the first driver prepping for how he’ll tackle the Round of 8 in the span of two weeks.
But don’t count out friendly rival Denny Hamlin, who came alive in Tennessee after a befuddling start to the postseason. After a roller coaster open to the playoffs (with average running positions of 30.8 and 32.2 in the first two races), Hamlin roared back at Bristol with a 4.6 average running position to advance out of what was likely his most difficult round.
This could be where he starts to reassert his 2024 dominance — No. 11 has more Kansas wins than anyone else in the field and has finished in the top five in his last six starts there. If there’s anyone who can challenge Larson’s supremacy, it’s Hamlin.
That said, every remaining playoff driver is likely looking at Kansas as the place to capitalize this round. Not only does a win there allow for extra Round of 8 prep but the last two races of the round also offer significantly more — on paper, at least — volatility, being the largest track we go to (the 2.66-mile Talladega Superspeedway) and the only road-course/oval of the season (Charlotte Motor Speedway’s road course).
Every competitor will likely be on the ball this weekend, and we shouldn’t hand the Kansas trophy and coveted Round of 8 spot to Larson or Hamlin just yet. In the stages era, four of the seven winners of the first Round of 12 race were ranked eighth or worse in the standings coming in. And while 95% of drivers seeded in the top three have historically advanced out of this round, there’s always that chance for an upset — just ask Larson, himself, about 2017.
The stage is set for three weeks of heart-pounding action (there we go with the palpitations again), and with Talladega and the Roval looming after Kansas, drivers know they can’t afford a misstep.
Perhaps the chaos of the Round of 16 — which saw two past champions eliminated and the fewest points ever scored by playoff drivers — was just the appetizer.
In this clip from Corey LaJoie’s ‘Stacking Pennies’ podcast, LaJoie relives how he found out he was driving the final seven races for Rick Ware Racing.
4. How many points do you traditionally need to advance to the Round of 8?
Keep an eye on the standings as the Round of 12 rolls on — as drivers approach these numbers, their chances improve to move on.
Season
Driver
Points
To Bubble
2023
Martin Truex Jr.
3,102
+12
2022
Kyle Larson
3,101
+7
2021
Martin Truex Jr.
3,113
+25
2020
Kurt Busch
3,081
+10
2019
Kyle Larson
3,092
+4
2018
Clint Bowyer/Ku. Busch/Chase Elliott
3,114
+6
2017
Jimmie Johnson
3,106
+9
5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage
