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October 3, 2024

Advance to Victory Lane: Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott lurking to make title bids at Talladega


If you were hoping for a clearer perspective of the postseason field after Kansas Speedway, perhaps the picture isn’t clear enough — no one is safe.

The standings took another turn, with many title hopefuls and race favorites yet again finding trouble and missing out on critical opportunities at Kansas to capitalize on scoring stage points or even lock themselves into the Round of 8. No driver has consistently put a stronghold on the standings, keeping it wide open.

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The YellaWood 500 is on deck this Sunday at Talladega (2 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), and you might want to buckle up for another wild ride.

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With playoff peril striking almost weekly, it’s hard to pencil in who can run the table nearing the halfway mark to crowning a champion. However, two drivers can feel somewhat confident heading into Talladega: Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott. Racing Insights has predicted the two drivers to finish 1-2, and for good reason — both drivers have seemed to find ways to master the chaos around the Alabama high banks. Not only have they each won multiple times at ‘Dega, but they are the only two active playoff drivers to average more than 30 points scored in the stage era (Blaney, 32.73; Elliott, 31.93).

Secondly, both drivers have had their share of postseason issues, but those haven’t stalled their performance as they rank fourth and fifth in points scored through four postseason races (Blaney, 136; Elliott, 127). In Blaney’s camp, he’s not only the defending champ but the defending race winner. Plus, his reputation at drafting tracks speaks for itself, with eight top 10s in the last 12 races. We know Team Penske turns it on around this time of year and is gunning for a third consecutive championship. As for Elliott, he seems to be tapping into that consistency that led to him 19 straight finishes in the top 20 earlier this year. He’s nabbed top-10 finishes in three of the first four playoff races, has the best average finish among full-time drivers with 11.3 and has the most lead-lap finishes with 28.

If either driver can walk away from Talladega with a clean day and a handful of points — or even win — don’t expect them to let off the gas next week at the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course, a place both have won at.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

WILLIAM BYRON: Byron saw the performance jump he was looking for last week at Kansas. He now goes to Talladega, a place where he’s had two runner-up finishes. He’s also the only driver with three wins on drafting tracks in the Next Gen era.

AUSTIN CINDRIC: Cindric has scored the most points (181) and led the most laps (168) on drafting tracks this season. He looked comfortable out front leading at Atlanta and he has two top 10s in the last four Talladega races.

JOEY LOGANO: As mentioned earlier, Team Penske emphasizes winning races this time of year. Logano opened the playoffs proving that point by winning at Atlanta. With how chaotic the playoffs have been, don’t count out a savvy veteran navigating it all.

KYLE BUSCH: Rowdy was left ‘numb’ after Kansas. While the entire playoff field is itching to get into Victory Lane, no one wants to win more than Busch right now. In the last 10 races on drafting track he’s tied for the most top-five finishes with four and has the best average finish at 9.9.

BRAD KESELOWSKI: Ah yes, the six-time Talladega winner. Keselowski may be out of playoff competition, but he should firmly be in the mix to play spoiler. He has four top-five finishes over the last seven races at Talladega.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE YELLAWOOD 500

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.

FinishCar NumberDriver
112Ryan Blaney
29Chase Elliott
324William Byron
48Kyle Busch
511Denny Hamlin
648Alex Bowman
723Bubba Wallace
81Ross Chastain
92Austin Cindric
1099Daniel Suárez
1145Tyler Reddick
1220Christopher Bell
135Kyle Larson
1417Chris Buescher
156Brad Keselowski
1614Chase Briscoe
1722Joey Logano
187Justin Haley
1954Ty Gibbs
2019Martin Truex Jr.
2134Michael McDowell
2238Todd Gilliland
2351Corey LaJoie
2410Noah Gragson
2543Erik Jones
264Josh Berry
2777Carson Hocevar
2841Ryan Preece
2947Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
303Austin Dillon
3131Daniel Hemric
3271Zane Smith
3321Harrison Burton
3415Cody Ware
3562Anthony Alfredo
3642John H. Nemechek
3713AJ Allmendinger
3816Shane van Gisbergen
3978BJ McLeod
4044J.J. Yeley

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