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October 26, 2024

Fantasy Update: Toyota lead the way at Homestead, Stewart-Haas Racing surprising


Much like Darlington Raceway last month, it’s a tall task to build the best fantasy lineup for Homestead-Miami Speedway because it’s a low-grip race track that has drastic tire falloff over the course of a run. Per usual at Homestead, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. were among the best in practice and qualifying. But it was non-playoff driver Noah Gragson who controlled the long runs, leading the field in 10-, 15-, 20-, 25- and 30-lap averages. Could there be one final hoorah for SHR before it rebrands to Haas Factory Team at the end of the 2024 season?

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Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:

Starter 1: Tyler Reddick

Starter 2: Kyle Larson

Starter 3: Denny Hamlin

Starter 4: Christopher Bell

Starter 5: Martin Truex Jr.

Garage pick: William Byron

NEXT IN LINE: Bubba Wallace, Chase Briscoe, Noah Gragson, Chase Elliott

RISING: Elliott has never been unsatisfactory at Homestead, but his numbers don’t jump off the page, either, despite having an average finish of 10.4 in eight starts. After wrecking early in the Round of 8 opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Elliott is in must-win mode. Not ideal, but the No. 9 team overachieved in qualifying, slotting in seventh. Crew chief Alan Gustafson might need to hone in on long-run speed, though, as Elliott lacked pace compared to his competition. That makes me hesitant to include him in my lineup.

There are just three races remaining for the current version of Stewart-Haas Racing, but the four-car team brought speed to Homestead. Noah Gragson was the best car on long runs in practice, and after 20 laps, Chase Briscoe soared up the leaderboard. The most recent Cup race at a track that resembled Homestead with drastic tire wear, the No. 14 team won its way into the playoffs in walk-off fashion at Darlington Raceway. Briscoe has struggled at Homestead in Cup but has won in both the Xfinity and Truck Series here and thoroughly enjoys low-grip race tracks.

FALLING: Entering Homestead comfortably 27 points above the elimination line, Byron just needs a well-rounded weekend. Unfortunately for the No. 24 team, Byron struggled in qualifying and will start the 400-mile race from 25th position, the worst of the playoff drivers still vying for a Championship 4 spot. Practice was better, however, particularly on the long run. Because Homestead is typically filled with said long runs, he’s worth keeping available.

It was a rough day at the office across the board for Team Penske on Saturday at Homestead. Joey Logano experienced a power steering issue in practice and will start the rear of the field. Austin Cindric is an elite qualifier, but his pace was 36th best in qualifying. Then there’s Ryan Blaney, whose focus will be on winning one of the next two races to advance to the Championship 4. We highlighted the defending Cup champion’s Homestead numbers earlier in the week, and his 20th-place qualifying effort doesn’t help those chances. The good news for Blaney fans: He looked competitive as runs went on (ranked third on 15-lap averages), which Homestead is typically filled with.

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Kyle Larson vs. William Byron: This seemed like a tougher matchup entering the weekend, but the two Hendrick Motorsports drivers will start the race on opposite ends of the spectrum. The No. 5 machine was good enough for a front-row starting spot while the No. 24 car will be buried in 25th. Byron might have had a better car overall in practice, but there’s no way I’m going against Larson at Homestead.

Tyler Reddick vs. Christopher Bell: The Toyotas showed up on Saturday at Homestead with elite speed, filling out half of the top 10 in qualifying. Reddick scored his third pole award of the season and is known for running the wall better than anyone else in the field. The No. 20 team had a right-front tire go flat in qualifying and didn’t optimize the entire session. Sticking with Reddick because he’s so good at Homestead, but this is a wicked matchup.

Ryan Blaney vs. Martin Truex Jr.: Nothing has changed here, either. It’s plausible to believe that Blaney will rocket through the field on Sunday from his 20th starting position. Truex is a tough matchup because he’s also among the best at Homestead in recent years, earning four podium finishes in the last seven races. Keeping the No. 19 Toyota in my lineup and in this matchup.

Denny Hamlin vs. Chase Elliott: With how mediocre Hamlin and the No. 11 team have been in the postseason, qualifying fourth could be seen as a morale boost. The same could be said for Elliott in seventh because of his lack of speed over the long run in practice. Hamlin is the pick because of his longevity of success at Homestead.

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