Editor’s note: Projected finish has been updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions. Kyle Larson replaces Christopher Bell as the projected winner.
The Round of 8 opener wasn’t just the dogfight we all anticipated it would be — it was an all-out war. Joey Logano and the No. 22 crew yet again proved it doesn’t matter how much pace you bring off the hauler, it takes the best team to win and stamp a ticket to Phoenix Raceway.
Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) should be no different; whoever wins will ultimately have to be flawless from top to bottom and may have to take some risk that pays a great reward.
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Three drivers who were heavy pre-race favorites last week should be double-circling Miami as must-wins for their title bids. Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick each had a strong case to be in Victory Lane last Sunday, and not only are these three drivers some of the best at riding the fence at Miami, but they opened as the top three betting favorites this week. Granted, most of the elite eight drivers left have been top-tier at Homestead, but that’s why there’s more pressure on Bell, Larson and Reddick to win Sunday — they arguably let one get away, and at this time of year, you simply just can’t let that happen.
In Bell’s case, he enters as the defending winner and has proved time and time again that he thrives with his back against the wall in the playoffs. In other words, he has his sight set on defending his win. The only issue is Miami hasn’t seen a back-to-back winner since Greg Biffle’s three-peat from 2004-06. However, Racing Insights’ early week projection forecasted that to change, with Bell picked as the winner.
Larson has led over 600 laps at Homestead in his last seven starts in South Beach. While he’s had unfortunate luck in all three of the opening round races, the bright side is the No. 5 team has found ways to quickly turn things around. He won six stages there, which is four more than the next-highest driver and won this race two years ago.
Reddick has yet to win at Homestead at the Cup level, though he does have three top-five finishes in his four career starts and has two Xfinity wins there. Plus, he’s not afraid to push it right to the limit when it comes to ripping the fence at Homestead. With Martinsville next week, Reddick should be all-in on going for the win.
OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH
WILLIAM BYRON: Byron, another former Homestead winner, has been red-hot the last four races with consecutive top fives. The No. 24 is hitting its stride at the right time, and the consistent performances Byron’s churned out are what lead to Championship 4 berths. He’s been itching to win and expressed that last weekend, so it’s only a matter of time.
DENNY HAMLIN: Hamlin’s a three-time Homestead winner and has only one finish worse than 12th in the last 11 Miami races. He had a steering failure last year in this race and playoff struggles have only piled up for the No. 11 team this year, he will need to dig deep and find a vintage performance this weekend.
KYLE BUSCH: Rowdy has eight straight top-10 finishes at Miami. While it is certainly difficult for non-playoff drivers to reach a new level and beat playoff drivers this late in the year, Busch has a streak he wants to keep alive of seeing Victory Lane at least once for two decades, and it’s hard to count him out.
AJ ALLMENDINGER: Here’s another sleeper to watch out for this weekend. Allmendinger has finished in the top five in the last two Miami races, which is tied for the longest streak. This 1.5-mile track is arguably his best as he owns five top 10s and an average finish of 15.5 in 12 starts there.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE STRAIGHT TALK WIRELESS 400
Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.
| Finish | Car Number | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 3 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 4 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 5 | 24 | William Byron |
| 6 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 7 | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 8 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 9 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 10 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 11 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 12 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 13 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 14 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 15 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 16 | 10 | Noah Gragson |
| 17 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 18 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 19 | 14 | Chase Briscoe |
| 20 | 34 | Michael McDowell |
| 21 | 7 | Justin Haley |
| 22 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 23 | 41 | Ryan Preece |
| 24 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 25 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 26 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 27 | 71 | Zane Smith |
| 28 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 29 | 31 | Daniel Hemric |
| 30 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger |
| 31 | 4 | Josh Berry |
| 32 | 38 | Todd Gilliland |
| 33 | 44 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 34 | 21 | Harrison Burton |
| 35 | 51 | Corey LaJoie |
| 36 | 15 | Kaz Grala |
| 37 | 44 | J.J. Yeley |
| 38 | 66 | Chad Finchum |