Advance to Victory Lane: It’s crunch time at Martinsville Speedway

Editor’s note: Projected finish has been updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions. Chase Elliott replaces Kyle Larson as the projected winner.

Homestead-Miami Speedway produced another masterclass, and Sunday at Martinsville Speedway should be the cherry on top of what’s already been a mesmerizing Round of 8.

At Las Vegas and Homestead, respectively, Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick each won from below the elimination line to advance to the Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway. Perhaps more importantly, each of the six remaining drivers has stepped into the winner’s circle at the Virginia short track at least once in their respective Cup careers. In other words, don’t count anyone out this weekend at Martinsville from corralling a spot in next week’s desert showdown for the Bill France Cup.

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The Martinsville elimination race has put on some classics over the years and it feels like we could get another moment of brilliance this weekend with how the playoffs — and, quite frankly, the whole year — has gone.

Racing Insights sees the six drivers still vying for a Champ 4 spot among the projected top seven in Sunday’s finishing order. So, how does one separate himself from the rest and get to Victory Lane this weekend?

Luckily, the last two postseason tussles gave us two good indications of what’s needed to conquer this pressure-cooker race: high risks that pay high rewards and a driver who can execute in the clutch.

At Las Vegas, Logano and crew chief Paul Wolfe stole one in Vegas with a daring call to stay out and gamble on fuel. Even when you thought Logano wasn’t going to make it, he again showed his veteran experience at fuel-saving and had enough in the tank for a victory burnout.

Last week in South Beach, Reddick benefitted from not only a gutsy call by Billy Scott to stay out and take the restart on two-lap older tires after a caution, but he was also willing to push it to the limit by riding the high line, inches from the wall and best six other title contenders — who all found their way into the top 10 during the final stage.

It’s easier said than done, but whichever combo of crew chief and driver is willing to go off the beaten path for race strategy and tip-toe around the nimble 0.526-mile paperclip track the best, may just have the confetti fall for them.

THE SIX TO WATCH:

CHRISTOPHER BELL: Some are writing Bell into the final four given he’s plus-29 and just needs to avoid anything crazy happenning. But he finished 35th in the spring here and it feels cautious to call anyone safe as chaos has been a consistent theme. Still, the No. 20 has earned its way to Phoenix in each of the last two years, so maybe the C in C-Bell stands for “clutch” this Sunday.

WILLIAM BYRON: The most recent Martinsville winner, Byron — and Hendrick Motorsports all together — schooled the field last time out here. He’s been fiery the last few races, too, with consistent top fives and even soared to a sixth-place finish at Miami after starting 25th. Plus, the No. 24 car has seen the checkered flag first a host of times at this short track.

KYLE LARSON: Larson played runner-up in Hendrick’s 1-2-3 finish in the spring, and he’s been stout at Martinsville, too. In his last four starts there, he has two poles and an average finish of 2.75. Larson’s numbers are always impressive, the main factor is he will have to be methodical about his moves if he wants a chance to contest for his second Cup title.

DENNY HAMLIN: Look back on this season you’ll see Hamlin has three short-track wins. He also loves home cooking. The Chesterfield, Virginia, native has 10 wins in his home state and already won this year at Richmond. While he’s had playoff struggles, he’s going to have to go all-in for the win and forget what’s happened the last few weeks.UPDATE: Hamlin faces a steep hill to a Championship 4 spot, wrecking out in practice yesterday and failing to register a qualifying run. He will start from the rear of the field Sunday.

RYAN BLANEY: He’s not only the reigning champ, but he’s also the race’s defending winner. Blaney was quick to turn the page to Martinsville after his ‘sting’ at Homestead. Last week, he also showed that you may even have to pass him for the win if you want to dethrone him. Good luck, though. Blaney has consistently been one of the best at Martinsville with an 8.8 average finish, and he excelled defending the lead last year in a pressure-packed moment.

CHASE ELLIOTT: Finally, let’s talk about the third-place wheelman from the spring. Elliott was in a similar position in 2020, needing a win in an elimination race, and we all know how that story ended at Phoenix. Being down 43 markers, the No. 9 has to be in a position to gamble the most and execute in all facets from behind the wheel to pit road.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE XFINITY 500

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.