Back to News

November 4, 2024

Analysis: What went wrong for stars who fell short of Championship 4


The last four Cup Series champions have a dubious distinction in common: They all failed to reach the Championship 4 the previous year.

So while the 2024 championship campaigns ended with the Round of 8 at Martinsville Speedway for Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson, there’s hope for next year — especially considering it’s a quartet that already has a combined 11 appearances in the title race.

But there also was something missing in the 2024 playoffs.

MORE: Blaney surges to Champ 4 spot | 2024 Championship 4 locked in

Related Story
ryan blaney Clutch in the playoffs: Blaney the latest to win in critical situation

Here’s what went wrong in this year’s stretch run and what needs to improve next season for the four stars who came up just short of a Cup championship:

CHRISTOPHER BELL

Round of 8 results: Two top fives but missed advancing by four points because of an ill-timed caution at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and an illegal wall ride at Martinsville Speedway.

Playoffs performance:  Just as in its Championship 4 berths in 2022-23, the No. 20 Toyota again rose to another level with two pole positions, five top fives and 281 laps led. But while he was always in the fight, Bell and his pit crew faltered at meeting the moment with unforced errors at Martinsville Speedway.

For a 2025 title, less of this: Checkers or wreckers. Bell had six finishes of 30th or worse because of crashes, though all came before the playoffs.

… and more of this: Second-half victories — all three of his wins were before the season’s midpoint.

CHASE ELLIOTT

Round of 8 results: Ended with two top-five finishes but a 33rd in the opener left him 44 points shy of advancing to his fourth title race.

Playoffs performance: The No. 9 Chevrolet had four top fives but also was consistently inconsistent with one blemish in every round. A poor pit stop was the culprit in a 19th at Watkins Glen International, and it was wrong place, wrong time in crashes at Talladega Superspeedway (29th) and Las Vegas Motor Speedway (33rd).

For a 2025 title, less of this: Untimely hiccups by driver and team. Both factored into blunting Elliott’s momentum at Martinsville with a 20-second pit stop and then a bizarre collision with Chris Buescher.

… and more of this: Victories. It’s been two years since his last multiple-win season (and a career-best five victories in 2022).

Brittney Wilbur | NASCAR Digital Media

DENNY HAMLIN

Round of 8 results: Despite three top-10 finishes (and a huge “what if?” in narrowly missing a victory at Homestead-Miami Speedway), he finished at a 24-point deficit of advancing to his fifth Championship 4.

Playoffs performance: After opening with his two worst results (24th at Atlanta, 23rd at Watkins Glen), the No. 11 Toyota team never really found its stride afterward. Equal blame to share between the crew chief (faulty strategy at Atlanta), pit crew (abysmal at Las Vegas) and driver (blew it on the last restart at Homestead).

For a 2025 title, less of this: Inconsistency. Until he closed the Round of 8 with a third and fifth-place finish, Hamlin hadn’t scored consecutive top fives since posting five in a row from April 28-June 2.

… and more of this: Clean races. That starts with more performance from the pit crew, but Hamlin and crew chief Chris Gabehart simply lacked trademark execution during their sixth season together.

KYLE LARSON

Round of 8 results: Unable to recover from consecutive finishes outside the top 10 at Las Vegas and Homestead, he was seven points short of making his third title race.

Playoffs performance: Mostly feast or famine. The No. 5 Chevrolet was a world-beater with no equal in winning at Bristol Motor Speedway and the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval. Though strong at tracks where he has struggled (Talladega, Martinsville), he had weak results at his 1.5-mile benchmarks (Kansas, Homestead).

For a 2025 title, less of this: Indy 500 distractions. At least it’s been guaranteed that Larson won’t lose the Regular Season Championship by missing the Coca-Cola 600 again.

… and more of this: Walking that tightrope between overstepping the limit and driving at a maximum few others can reach. Though he occasionally still crossed the limit (Homestead), Larson was as good as ever at harnessing his team’s blinding speed in 2024.

Nate Ryan has written about NASCAR since 1996 while working at the San Bernardino Sun, Richmond Times-Dispatch, USA TODAY and for the past 10 years at NBC Sports Digital. He is the host of the NASCAR on NBC Podcast and also has covered various other motorsports, including the IndyCar and IMSA series.

MUST WATCH