Racing Insights: Expect more thrills and close battles at Homestead

Projections updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying.

Josh Berry put the NASCAR world on notice last week at Las Vegas by showing top-tier speed and taking home a historic 101st win for Wood Brothers. The triumph also puts more pressure on Cup Series stars who have yet to visit Victory Lane.

Sunday’s race at Homestead-Miami Speedway (3 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) presents a great opportunity for the circuit’s best to challenge each other for a key win early in the season.

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The 1.5-mile track in Florida is essentially a neutral ground; no particular manufacturer or team truly dominates the speedway. For example, there have been nine winners over the last nine Homestead races. In a similar tune, Hendrick Motorsports has led 434 of 801 laps at Homestead in the Next Gen era, but the organization has one win in the last three races there. Even when you look back at the last time the Cup Series was at Homestead, we saw 33 lead changes, which set a new track record, and three different drivers led the final three laps, making a case that any of the top-rated drivers could earn a playoff bid.

To further the point of parity, in the last seven races on 1.5-mile tracks, there have been as many winners over that span. As for this season, there have already been 174 lead changes, which is only three off from the most ever through five weeks. Plus, nine different stage winners in the first five races set a new record.

One thing we should expect, though, is for the eventual winner to show speed early. The driver who led the most laps has won six of the last seven Miami races, and six of the last nine winners started the race inside the top five.

As to who we should expect to be in the mix for the win and battle up front? A few big names who haven’t won yet come to mind.

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DRIVERS TO WATCH

TYLER REDDICK: Starting with the most recent Homestead winner, it’s no secret Reddick is a speed demon when it comes to ripping the fence around Miami, as proven by how he won there in the fall last year. He has four top-four finishes in five career Cup starts there and has been on the cusp of winning a few times this year.

RYAN BLANEY: It’s felt like there hasn’t been a week where the No. 12 Ford hasn’t shown speed to win. Blaney has been unlucky recently with two early exits at Phoenix and Vegas, but at Homestead, he’s finished second there in the last two races and is the only driver with more than one runner-up finish there without a win.

KYLE LARSON: Larson has logged 1,286 laps led on 1.5-mile tracks in the Next Gen car, which nearly doubles Christopher Bell’s total in second place (614). He also has 12 stage wins on intermediate tracks since 2022 … no other driver has more than five.

DENNY HAMLIN: Hamlin has been consistently good at Miami throughout his career, owning three wins and 13 top 10s over 20 starts there. However, his last win on a 1.5-mile track came in the 2023 Kansas spring race.

CHASE ELLIOTT: This year’s Clash winner has yet to finish out of the top 20 in the first four points-paying races, something to keep an eye on as he went the first 19 races last year with top 20 finish. Elliott also led 81 laps at Miami last year to finish fifth, his best finish in the last four races there.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE STRAIGHT TALK WIRELESS 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.