Racing Insights: Battle of the powerhouses at Martinsville

Projections updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying.

It was only a matter of time until Kyle Larson earned his first win of the season and a playoff bid with his triumph at Homestead-Miami. Now, the NASCAR Cup Series treks up to Martinsville Speedway for the Cook Out 400 (3 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), marking its first short-track bout of the year.

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Three teams come into focus ahead of Sunday’s race, and it’s the three powerhouses in the Cup Series. Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske have won the last 13 races at Martinsville — with Hendrick leading the way at five, while JGR and Penske own four apiece. Each of those organizations has more than one driver capable of winning at the 0.526-mile track, and a win for one of those drivers who have yet to earn one would be critical.

Starting with Hendrick, of course, the organization has 29 wins and 11,103 laps led at the Virginia short track, which are the most ever for one team at a facility. William Byron or Kyle Larson may win again this week, as the duo went 1-2 in this race a year ago and currently sit 1-2 in the driver standings, but the driver in focus here is Chase Elliott. Martinsville is one of Elliott’s strongest tracks, with 1,233 laps led and 12 top 10s, being his most ever at a single circuit. While he’s finished in the top 20 every race this season, he’s currently fourth in average finish (12.8) out of the Hendrick quartet — seventh overall among full-time drivers — which shows he’s quietly been consistent. Silent success isn’t a bad thing, but coming off 129 laps led and a runner-up performance last time at Martinsville signals that the No. 9 driver should be anything but quiet this weekend.

Moving over to JGR, the team may have three wins this season, however, each of those came from Christopher Bell. Hamlin had a chance to score one of those victories at Phoenix but was just edged out by Bell. The bright side, though, is that Hamlin is most likely JGR’s best short-track ace. He notched three wins on short tracks last season and has finished top five in nine of the last 11 short-track races. Hamlin even has five career wins at Martinsville, four top fives over the last five races there and seven stage wins at the venue — tied with Elliott for the most. The only concern? Hamlin hasn’t won at Martinsville since 2015.

Finally, there’s Ryan Blaney of Team Penske. Despite all three Penske drivers leading the series in laps led, the organization is still searching for results that match its speed. Luckily for Blaney — if you want to call it luck — the last two times he’s gone to Martinsville after suffering Homestead heartbreak, he’s won. Of course, those two wins also came in playoff-pressure scenarios with his back against the wall, but in this case, Blaney is coming off three weeks of DNFs with arguably the fastest car, so it’s likely there is some pressure on him to turn in a solid result.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

JOEY LOGANO: Six weeks and still no top-10 finish for Logano. That should change as he currently owns an 11-race streak of top 10s at Martinsville. Logano needs a boost, his 18.8 average finish is the third-worst of a defending champ through six races.

CHASE BRISCOE: Briscoe has some momentum to build off of after a fourth-place finish at Miami. Martinsville is a great track for him, he has five top 10s there in his career and two top 10s over the last five short-track races.

ALEX BOWMAN: Sticking with the powerhouse theme here, Bowman is the only driver to finish top 10 in five of the six races this year. He’s a bit hit or miss at Martinsville, though. He does have a win there from 2021, but only one top-10 finish in the last five Martinsville races.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE COOK OUT 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.