Here’s what’s happening in the world of NASCAR with Darlington Raceway in the rearview and Bristol Motor Speedway (Sun., 3 p.m. ET, FS1) up next.
THE LINEUP
1️⃣ Eight races down — which contenders are in must-win mode already?
2️⃣ Clash of titans coming as Hamlin/Larson Bristol battle looms
3️⃣ Talkin’ tires — NASCAR’s Moran on Bristol expectations, PJ1
4️⃣ If Denny does it, he’ll be among oldest to ever do it
5️⃣ Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage
1. Eight races down — which contenders are in must-win mode already?
Many of the studs we expected to be strong in 2025 have gotten off to hot starts, but there are some surprising names currently outside the playoff picture. With the regular season about a third of the way through and the halfway point nearing, what’s the urgency level?
The 2025 NASCAR Playoffs feel quite a ways away, but September’s postseason picture is already beginning to take shape — with several big names slated to potentially miss.
We talked last week about Brad Keselowski potentially being the next driver to score on Father Time, or at least stabilize a bit in the coming weeks, and early on at Darlington it appeared that would happen — No. 6 placed sixth in the opening stage … only to eventually land P33 at race end.
The 2012 champion currently sits outside the top 30 in the standings and is one of just a handful of full-timers still without a top 10 in 2025. Keselowski has 36 Cup Series wins on his resume, and the other seven drivers still without a top 10 combine for 10 total, so he’s the clear outlier of the group.
But you don’t make the playoffs based on how many wins you’ve collected in the past. Sure, all of those drivers (and then some) could technically point their way into the playoffs, but these standings deficits are approaching and, in some cases, already surpassing the triple-digit mark, which is a pretty big hole to dig out of even with months to do it.
Keselowski is still in the midst of a strong stretch of tracks for him and could find a lifeline with a win in short order.
The four drivers just above Keselowski (-66 to the playoff elimination line) are separated by just 10 points and there have been some minor bright spots for Austin Dillon (-49), Erik Jones (-49), Justin Haley (-50) and Carson Hocevar (-59), but all of their deficits are close to being almost two full race’s worth of points and trending in the wrong direction. Probably fair to assume the most likely path to the postseason for any of them at this point, Keselowski included, probably comes with a winner’s sticker.
Which leaves, of course, everyone below Keselowski in the standings also likely in consideration for “must-win mode” starting this weekend at Bristol.
And there’s one rather large name below No. 6 in the standings — rookie Shane van Gisbergen.
A seasoned champion in his own right, the 35-year-old New Zealander was a bit of a wild card entering the year after just one full season of stock-car racing under his belt in the Xfinity Series, but he was expected to be at least a dark horse playoff contender. With a road course in the Round of 12, some even had him pegged to potentially make the Round of *8.*
Currently 33rd in points, 80 points shy of a playoff spot, that doesn’t appear likely to happen this year, but here’s the thing — out of any driver mentioned, he still arguably has the best shot to make it happen with a victory. Four road-course races remain in the regular season, including the Chicago Street Race, and he won that event in his first NASCAR start in any series. He’s only gotten better, and certainly will be even further along by then.
That’s … not a guy I’m going to count out, even if his passing, defense, speed and restarts all rank 30th or lower so far, according to NASCAR Insights. If we get through all four of those races and SVG remains winless and outside the playoff picture, there’s no way he and Trackhouse Racing don’t look at this season as a disappointment.
Again, we’re not “technically” at the point where any of these drivers can’t make the playoffs without winning but more than likely, based on what we’ve seen so far, winning is the only path to the postseason.
And if that’s the case, Keselowski and SVG are the names you look to who could make it happen.
2. Clash of titans coming in Hamlin/Larson Bristol battle
Denny Hamlin is going for three straight wins while Kyle Larson looks to rebound from a race at Darlington that essentially ended for him on Lap 4. The friendly rivals just happen to be the best at Bristol, too, and an epic battle between them may be around the corner.
The “Last Great Colosseum” is set to play host to the “Next Great Denny Hamlin/Kyle Larson” battle Sunday afternoon.
The Cup Series dominators appear to be on a collision course this weekend in the Tennessee mountains, lining up as two of the best ever at the track — while also being two of 2025’s hottest drivers.
The pair has claimed five of the last eight races there, including Larson’s mesmerizing stomping of the field in last year’s playoffs to the tune of 462 laps led — with three of the veteran Hamlin’s four wins there coming in that span. Hamlin enters as the race’s defending winner after his impressive display of tire management as teams had to adjust on the fly to high falloff last spring.
Hamlin and Larson also tied for the longest active top-10 streaks there with five apiece, but Larson’s streak was almost doubly impressive, as No. 5 has finished outside the top 10 only once in the last 11 Bristol races. Perhaps even more impressive, Larson has never finished outside the top five at Bristol in his time with Hendrick Motorsports.
Hamlin’s got momentum on his side, though.
Darlington, sure, maybe he got a little lucky there. But a win’s a win, and the good vibes from Victory Lane can carry a team through a week of prep and they’ll be walking into Bristol with their heads held high. And don’t forget about his masterpiece at Martinsville a week prior; now, Hamlin has a chance to make Joe Gibbs Racing the first team in history to have a pair of drivers win three straight races in the same season.
But it’s not just Bristol. We’re going to continue to see front-of-the-field battles between the two of them. Of the entire field, they’re the two who have earned the most points on short tracks since the start of last season, and they’re only separated by a single point there (Larson 341, Hamlin 340).
We know there’s history here, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them go tit-for-tat starting this weekend and over the coming months. And we can’t wait.
3. Talkin’ tires — NASCAR’s Moran on Bristol expectations, PJ1
NASCAR Cup Series Managing Director Brad Moran discusses the addition of PJ1 and the expectations for tire wear at Bristol after last spring’s high tire wear led to a thrilling race.
4. If Denny finally wins it all, he’ll be among the oldest to ever do it
We’re getting way ahead of ourselves, of course, but when a guy wins back-to-back races and enters as a favorite to win a third … you start to wonder what his championship chances might be. Hamlin — who turns 45 on Nov. 18 — has been close before as we all know, but if it happens, it will be the stuff of legend. (Credit: Racing Insights)
| Year | Champion | Age |
|---|---|---|
| 1983 | Bobby Allison | 45y : 11m : 17d |
| 1959 | Lee Petty | 45y : 07m : 11d |
| 1958 | Lee Petty | 44y : 07m : 12d |
| 1994 | Dale Earnhardt | 43y : 06m : 15d |
5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage
Drivers with NASCAR Cup Series wins after turning 40
Paint Scheme Preview: 2025 Bristol Motor Speedway spring weekend
‘Moments you dream of’: No. 11 pit crew relishes opportunity to propel Hamlin to win
Power Rankings: Will 2025’s best driver finally lead his first lap at Bristol?
Analyzing Kyle Larson’s ‘weird’ late-race Darlington spin
How William Byron’s ‘mistake’ cost him chance at Darlington win
NASCAR Insights: Is the old Ross Chastain back?
Hamlin ties Kyle Busch on Joe Gibbs Racing wins list
@nascarcasm: Fake texts to Darlington winner Denny Hamlin
