Racing Insights: Will Reddick and 23XI break through at Kansas?

Yes, every time the NASCAR Cup Series turns up at a 1.5-mile circuit, Kyle Larson is easy to pencil in as a projected winner, Racing Insights’ early forecast even leans his way. His numbers on intermediate tracks are staggering, and of course, he made history last year with the famous 0.001-second finish over Chris Buescher.

But there’s a different driver and organization that we should keep an eye on this Sunday at Kansas (3 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

RELATED: Kansas weekend schedule | Qualifying order, more info

With Team Penske collecting its first wins in the last two weeks, it’s a reminder that there’s another sleeping giant yet to awaken this season, and that would be 23XI Racing.

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The organization has four podium finishes through 11 races and two of its premier drivers have four top 10s apiece, currently residing in the top 10 in points. But neither has seen Victory Lane after a handful of chances. Still, there’s no reason for anyone in the 23XI camp to hit the panic button this early in the season, especially with Kansas on deck, a track that has been fruitful to the organization for several seasons.

23XI has led in each of the last six races at Kansas for a total of 225 laps and is the only organization to win more than once at the track in the past three years. Three of its eight wins came in the Sunflower State by way of three different drivers. Reddick is the most recent wheelman to win for the Michael Jordan co-owned team at Kansas (fall 2023) and is the main driver to watch here as he needs a turnaround to shrug off three finishes of 14th or worse.

However, per NASCAR Insights, Reddick’s Speed Rating at Kansas in the Next Gen era ranks fifth-best among active drivers. As for this season, Reddick’s long run Speed Rating on intermediate tracks ranks second, as does his Passer Rating on similar tracks and his Defense Rating on intermediate tracks ranks fifth — he is the only driver to be top five in each of those categories, all of which signal that he should be firmly in the mix this weekend.

In both Kansas races last year, 23XI didn’t record a top-15 finish. Reddick was 20th in this race a year ago, which is a bit shocking since it felt like the organization had the “secret stuff” to routinely perform well at the facility. A solid run for one of its three full-time teams would be nice after its struggles at Texas, but it would speak volumes if it can find a way to make it four wins in seven races.

OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

BUBBA WALLACE: It only feels right to talk about the other 23XI driver who has won at Kansas, especially when you consider just how good Wallace has been this season. His history at Kansas is not pretty, but all three of his top-10 finishes there have been in the last six races, so he’s certainly been more comfortable at the track recently.

DENNY HAMLIN: Might as well hit on the team’s other co-owner while we’re at it. Hamlin has four wins at Kansas — the most all-time — and has finished eighth or better in the last seven Kansas races, which is currently the longest active top-10 streak at a track.

CHRISTOPHER BELL: Bell currently ranks second behind Hamlin in best Speed Rating and long-run Speed Rating at Kansas in the Next Gen era. While he’s 0-for-4 in trying to convert a pole to a win at Kansas and has 194 laps led there, and is due to break through soon with how quick he’s been there.

ALEX BOWMAN: Bowman has finished top 10 in each of the last five races at Kansas and 10 career top 10s at the track to make it his most at any track. Plus, his 14.7 average finish at Kansas is tied with Daytona for his personal-best on an oval with multiple starts.

AUSTIN DILLON: The last three races Dillon has finished with a top 10, which is tied for his longest streak since October 2022. He has six top 10s at Kansas in his career and good momentum to continue his streak.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE ADVENTHEALTH 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.