Racing Insights: Who’s next to find their first win of 2025?

Exactly halfway through the regular season, only eight drivers have provisionally locked their spot in the NASCAR Playoffs with a win. However, three of the last four drivers who stepped into Victory Lane did so for the first time this season, which signals there’s still runway for a driver’s season to launch.

Looking at Nashville, it will be just the fifth Cup Series race at the 1.33-mile concrete speedway, and a few candidates have a chance this Sunday to change their season’s tune in Music City (7 p.m. ET, Prime Video, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

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Ryan Blaney, pole winner Chase Briscoe and Chase Elliott are drivers from the powerhouse teams that currently remain winless. Yes, they would each be safe on points to make the playoff field if things stay the same by the end of August. But asking for the next 13 weeks to go smoothly is a lot, given that a turbulent shake-up could happen at any moment. It’s always better to be safe than sorry and win to ensure you’re in, rather than leaving it up to chance.

Starting with Elliott, he’s finished every race in the top 20, with seven of those being top 10s. The 2020 Cup Series champ also has two wins on concrete, with one of them at Nashville in 2022. The way Hendrick Motorsports has been humming this season — it currently leads all teams in poles (five), top fives (19), top 10s (31), laps led (1,706) and stage wins (14) — it only seems like a matter of time until Elliott places a winner sticker on the No. 9 Chevrolet.

On to Blaney, who hasn’t won yet, mainly because he has five DNFs, which are tied for the most this season. But he has the speed to win, given NASCAR Insights ranks Blaney first in both long-run speed and passing for the season. At Nashville, Blaney finished sixth there last year after a chaotic run of five overtimes and has a career-best finish of third at the facility in 2022. However, his other two results in Music City hit a different note, with crashes being scored 36th or worse.

Finally, there’s Briscoe, who said last week the No. 19 team is “still learning each other,” but then went out and earned his second pole of 2025 and finished third in one of the toughest races on the schedule. While his driver average of 29.3 at Nashville indicates it’s one of his worst tracks, all four of those starts were with Stewart-Haas Racing. He’s shown plenty of flashes in Joe Gibbs Racing’s equipment, adding a second straight pole on Saturday, with three of his last five finishes being fourth or better, and it could all come together this weekend.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

BUBBA WALLACE: All four times Wallace has entered Nashville, he’s earned a top 20; his average finish of 13.5 at the speedway makes it one of his best tracks. Plus, he could use a rebound after three straight finishes of 33rd or worse.

RYAN PREECE: The No. 60 RFK Racing driver has been making 2025 a career year so far, as he currently holds the 16th playoff spot. Preece has two wins at Nashville in the Truck Series and his 17.3 average finish is his best for active non-short tracks.

AJ ALLMENDINGER: Coming off a fourth-place finish in the 600, Allmendinger now has four top 10s this season. He only has three starts at Nashville at the Cup level with a best finish of 10th, but did win an Xfinity race there two years ago. (UPDATE: Allmendinger will be starting from the rear.)

COREY HEIM: It’s a long shot for Heim to win in his second start of 2025, but that’s not why he’s here. At Kansas this year, Heim was the highest-finishing 23XI car in 13th. He recently became the youngest driver to reach 15 truck wins and his career numbers mirror Kyle Busch’s so far. Nashville will be the first oval he’s seeing twice at the Cup level, and a good indication of whether he’s ready to make the full-time jump soon.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE CRACKER BARREL 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.