The three races at Michigan International Speedway, Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez and Pocono Raceway determine the seeding for NASCAR’s In-Season Challenge. Seeding is based on a driver’s best finish in the three races. The first tiebreaker is the next-best finish in the three races, followed by the third-best finish in the three races. If there’s still a tie after that, then season-long points standings after Pocono will determine who gets the better seed for the challenge opener on June 28 at EchoPark Speedway (formerly Atlanta Motor Speedway).
RELATED: How the In-Season Challenge works | Hub page with bracket
We’ll track how the seeding is stacking up, from No. 1 to No. 32, after each of the three seeding races — and provide instant analysis. Here’s where we stand after the first seeding race at Michigan, which admittedly will be the easiest race to sort through because we only have one race’s data to digest:
Michigan race winner: Denny Hamlin of Joe Gibbs Racing won for the third time this season, passing William Byron with a little more than three laps to go and saving enough fuel to get through the finish and even do a burnout. Hamlin’s first-place finish rockets him to the top of the seedings for the In-Season Challenge. It’s on to Mexico City, where Hamlin won in the Xfinity Series way back in 2006.
Who’s in line for the top four seeds: Besides Hamlin, it was a big day for RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher, JGR’s Ty Gibbs and 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace. Although none of these drivers have a victory this season, it shouldn’t have been a surprise to see them finish well on Sunday. Buescher won here in 2023 in the Next Gen car while Wallace was the runner-up in 2022. Gibbs, meanwhile, was the leader in 10-lap averages in practice on Saturday.
Out of these three, who has the best chance to keep a top-four seed after Mexico City? We’re leaning toward Buescher, who has the best average finish on road courses among active drivers since NASCAR switched over to the Next Gen car. Buescher’s average finish of 7.938 is even good enough to put Shane van Gisbergen in the rearview mirror at 9.0.
If the In-Season Challenge started today, Buescher would be matched up with John Hunter Nemechek in the first round, while Gibbs would get a first-round matchup with Todd Gilliland. As for who Bubba would match up against? …
Most interesting matchup if the Challenge started today: Bubba Wallace vs. Ryan Blaney. Good friends would be going toe-to-toe at Atlanta if the matchups hold from Sunday. And what a matchup it would be with two of NASCAR’s better superspeedway racers going at it at a track where either guy could be in the mix for the victory. Blaney has four drafting track wins in his career along with six straight top-10 finishes at Atlanta. Wallace has two top-10 finishes in the last three races at Atlanta.
Who’s Up
RFK Racing: All three of their cars finished in the top 10 at Michigan with the aforementioned runner-up by Buescher to go with Ryan Preece in ninth place and Brad Keselowski in 10th. Preece now has top-10 finishes in three of his last four races, and if the challenge started today, he’d be matched up with Noah Gragson in the first round. And after a slow start to the season for Keselowski, the 2012 champ now has top-10 finishes in two of his last three races. He’d be matched up with Ty Dillon in the first round if the challenge started today.
Who’s Down
Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet: Bowman started the season strong with top-10 finishes in five of the first six races, including a runner-up finish at Homestead-Miami Speedway that had him sitting third in the standings. But that all seems like a long time ago, given how he’s struggled lately. Bowman’s No. 48 Chevrolet took a hard hit in a Stage 2 melee that took him out of the Michigan race, scoring him in 36th place. Since Homestead, Bowman has five finishes of 35th or worse.
Projected seeds after Michigan:
| Projected Seed | Driver | Best finish |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 1 |
| 2 | Chris Buescher | 2 |
| 3 | Ty Gibbs | 3 |
| 4 | Bubba Wallace | 4 |
| 5 | Kyle Larson | 5 |
| 6 | Ross Chastain | 6 |
| 7 | Zane Smith | 7 |
| 8 | Kyle Busch | 8 |
| 9 | Ryan Preece | 9 |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 10 |
| 11 | Erik Jones | 11 |
| 12 | Josh Berry | 12 |
| 13 | Tyler Reddick | 13 |
| 14 | Daniel Suarez | 14 |
| 15 | Chase Elliott | 15 |
| 16 | Christopher Bell | 16 |
| 17 | AJ Allmendinger | 17 |
| 18 | Austin Dillon | 19 |
| 19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20 |
| 20 | Justin Haley | 21 |
| 21 | Joey Logano | 22 |
| 22 | Chase Briscoe | 23 |
| 23 | Ty Dillon | 24 |
| 24 | Noah Gragson | 27 |
| 25 | William Byron | 28 |
| 26 | Carson Hocevar | 29 |
| 27 | Michael McDowell | 30 |
| 28 | Austin Cindric | 31 |
| 29 | Ryan Blaney | 32 |
| 30 | Todd Gilliland | 33 |
| 31 | John Hunter Nemechek | 34 |
| 32 | Alex Bowman | 36 |