Denny Hamlin reminded everyone on Sunday in the Irish Hills that he still might be the best driver out there, but the 44-year-old knows those days are numbered. The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing driver touted Spire Motorsports’ 22-year-old driver Carson Hocevar as a driver who can join NASCAR’s elite after he hangs it up (or sooner), but first, could No. 77 win his first Cup Series this weekend in the first premier series trip to Mexico City?
NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the top 20 Cup Series contenders after the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway and before the Viva Mexico 250 at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez (3 p.m. ET, Prime Video, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
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Analysis: Byron dominated Michigan by leading 98 laps and sweeping both stages, but a late fuel miscalculation forced him to pit from the lead in the closing moments to drop him to 28th despite being the fastest car all day yet again. The championship front runner looks like a great bet to claim the series’ first international race this weekend as well. Byron has won at both Watkins Glen and COTA in the last two years and, with Hendrick’s overall road-course pedigree and recent history of successfully racing outside the country in Le Mans, remains the man to beat as the Cup Series heads to Mexico City for the first time.
Analysis: Hamlin sniped a textbook fuel-saving strategy win at Michigan, taking the lead in the closing laps for his third victory of the season and 57th of his career as he looks as dialed in as ever. Though his lone Cup Series road-course win came at Watkins Glen in 2016, No. 11’s experience and recent form make him a real threat on any layout, especially with prior Xfinity laps — and a victory — at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez.
Analysis: Larson methodically worked his way to a fifth-place finish at Michigan, collecting crucial stage points and keeping his title chase on track despite a chaotic past month-plus for him. With six career Cup road-course wins – two each at Sonoma, Watkins Glen and the Charlotte Roval – his raw talent and adaptability make him a top contender for Mexico City’s technical challenge and unknowns.
Analysis: Bell battled traffic and pit cycles at Michigan to finish 16th, salvaging points on a day when he lacked front-running speed. Already a three-time Cup road-course winner, including COTA this year, Bell’s precision and recent success on these circuits bode well for NASCAR’s first premier series trip to Mexico City.
Analysis: Elliott ran up front and led laps at Michigan before a pit penalty and late strategy left him 15th at the flag. Still the active leader with seven Cup road-course wins, Elliott’s smooth style and elite track record on left-and-right circuits make him a perennial favorite, even at a brand-new venue.
Analysis: Reddick charged from the rear at Michigan, running in the top five before pit strategy shuffled him to 13th at the finish. With three Cup road-course wins at three different tracks and consistent top-10 speed on these layouts, he’s well suited to the unique demands of Mexico City.
Analysis: Blaney showed top-10 speed at Michigan and earned stage points, but a brush with the wall and spin left him 32nd after a promising run unraveled. He owns a Cup road-course win at the Charlotte Roval and, with Penske’s road-course strength, should bounce back quickly on the international stage.
Analysis: Chastain delivered a steady Michigan performance, picking up stage points and surging to sixth by the checkers. His aggressive style netted him a win at COTA in 2022 and he’s got double-digit top 10s on road courses, making him a potential disruptor in Mexico City’s tight corners.
Analysis: Wallace turned in one of his best drives of the year at Michigan, running top 10 throughout and finishing fourth for his best result since COTA at a much-needed time. While road courses haven’t historically been his strength, his steady improvement and newfound confidence could pay off at a track where everyone is learning on the fly.
Analysis: Logano struggled with handling at Michigan, finishing 22nd after never finding the pace to contend and walking out with just 15 points. He’s a past road-course winner at Watkins Glen and, with Team Penske looking to rebound off a rough showing in an important race for the organization, remains capable of a bounce-back as the series heads to a new challenge, which he’s tended to capitalize on in the past.
Analysis: Buescher surged late at Michigan to finish second after an overall excellent weekend for him to claim his best result of the season, and added a stage win on top. With a breakthrough Cup road-course win at Watkins Glen last year and his overall prowess on these tracks in the Next Gen era, he’s a legitimate contender for Mexico City, especially with RFK’s recent uptick in form.
Analysis: Briscoe started on the pole for the third straight week and ran top five early at Michigan, but faded to 23rd as handling issues set in. He’s a former Xfinity road-course winner with solid Cup runs on technical tracks, so don’t be surprised if he outperforms expectations in Mexico and finally maximizes the speed in his No. 19 Toyota.
Analysis: As expected, Busch snapped a slump with a solid eighth at Michigan for his first top 10 since Darlington after starting on the front row and running in the top 10 all day. A four-time Cup road-course winner and former Xfinity victor at Mexico City, Busch’s experience and racecraft could make him a contender if he keeps the mistakes at bay.
Analysis: Preece put together one of his best races of the season at Michigan, finishing ninth after running in the top 10 for much of the afternoon in a banner day for RFK. He’s shown flashes on road courses and will need to rely on that versatility to keep climbing the standings as the playoff hunt intensifies.
Analysis: Hocevar was in the mix for a career-best Michigan finish and potential first Cup win before a blown tire ended his day in 29th, erasing a shot at history. He continues to impress — along with incensing his peers — and his adaptability and aggression could turn a level playing field in Mexico City into him celebrating on an international stage.
Analysis: Bowman’s Michigan race ended early after being collected in a multicar crash, marking his seventh finish of 25th or worse in the last nine races. He did win last year’s Chicago Street Course race, so if he can shake off the bad luck, his road-course chops could shine in Mexico.
Analysis: Cindric was strong in Stage 2 at Michigan but faded to 31st after late-race issues. A former Xfinity road-course ace, Cindric’s technical skills make him a sleeper pick for Mexico City as he looks to regain some momentum.
Analysis: Berry quietly worked his way to 12th at Michigan, continuing a steady run to the playoffs with a win already in hand. He’s still learning the Cup road-course ropes, but being affiliated with Penske for weekends like this certainly doesn’t hurt.
Analysis: Allmendinger finished 17th at Michigan after a nondescript day, but his Cup road-course résumé — three wins at three different tracks — makes him a perennial threat when the series turns right. Expect him to be aggressive and opportunistic in Mexico City, where his experience could be a difference-maker and his spot in the playoffs could be there for the taking.
Analysis: Jones continued his recent uptick in speed and turned in an 11th-place Michigan finish, running inside the top 10 for stretches and showing Legacy’s improvement. While he’s not a frequent road-course frontrunner, his veteran savvy and momentum could help him capitalize on the unknowns in Mexico.