An eye-opening stretch in the Cup Series calendar begins Sunday with the inaugural event at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez (3 p.m. ET, Prime Video, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), the first points race in Cup outside the United States since 1958.
The trek to Mexico City is just the first of three road-course events (Chicago, Sonoma) to take place over the next five weeks, with the “Tricky Triangle” of Pocono Raceway and close-quartered drafting at EchoPark Speedway (formerly Atlanta Motor Speedway) sandwiched between.
It’s going to be a thrilling start to summer in NASCAR, which is bound to cause drama in the playoff picture. Let’s take a look at whose postseason fortunes can improve or worsen south of the border.
RELATED: Mexico schedule | Cup Series standings
GREEN FLAG [Drivers in a great spot for Mexico]
Mexico’s Daniel Suárez immediately jumps out to have a fairy tale finish realized this Sunday. 2025 has been an incredibly trying year for the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing team. With a current playoff probability of 9.73%, according to Racing Insights, Suárez sits 28th in points, 68 markers off the elimination line. But all fortunes can flip for the ninth-year Cup veteran in his home country. His first Cup win came at the Sonoma road course in 2022, followed by his Atlanta victory last year in a three-wide tilt. Suárez has a flair for the dramatic when he runs up front, and while that hasn’t been the case on road courses recently (one top 10 in the last 13 events), the No. 99 team is bound to have some tricks up their sleeve this weekend.
If you are looking for certainty on Sunday, look no further than Chris Buescher. Coming off a season-best runner-up at Michigan, the No. 17 RFK Racing Ford saw his playoff probability skyrocket 14.31 points to 59%, the highest percentage change of all drivers after the trip to the Irish Hills. Over the next month, Buescher should be feasting for points and potential wins as he boasts an 8.72 average finish in the Gen 7 car on road courses.
YELLOW FLAG [Drivers in a good spot, but have poor road-course stats]
Putting Chase Briscoe back on the spot again. Two consecutive poles followed up with little to show for it. The weekend trends have flipped for the No. 19 JGR camp, which struggled on Saturdays but made up for it in races earlier in the season. Briscoe has finished outside the top 15 in back-to-back weeks, and his playoff probability dipped down over nine points to 69.96% entering this weekend. Sitting 41 points above the elimination line, Briscoe will either need to maximize stage points on pit strategy or qualify and stay up front, something that’s been easier said than done so far this month.
Ryan Preece is tethered right on the elimination line with Kyle Busch as the pair of drivers own the same amount of points heading to Mexico. I’m more confident in Busch’s chances this weekend, given his top-five run at Circuit of The Americas earlier this season. However, the No. 60 driver finished 33rd at COTA and has a best finish of just ninth in 24 road-course starts.
RACING INSIGHTS: Results projections for Mexico
RED FLAG [Drivers I’m concerned about heading to Mexico]
Bubba Wallace hasn’t hidden the fact that his road-course prowess isn’t up to par; he owns just three top 10s in 33 career road-course starts. His playoff probability increased by almost five points after Michigan to 87.96%. The No. 23 23XI Racing crew will likely try to pull off a similar strategy to COTA earlier this season, where they finished 20th but maximized on points, winning Stage 1 and finishing inside the top 10 in Stage 2.
The pressure is on the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team and Alex Bowman this weekend. Dropping 5.86 points in his probability (37.83%), Bowman is now the last driver projected into the playoffs, and there’s still over two months left before the 16-driver field is set. The Tucson, Arizona native is one of the better road-course drivers at the Cup level, and he’ll need every bit of it on Sunday. He won the Chicago Street Race last season and owns five top 10s in the previous nine road-course races.