Racing Insights: Mexico begins five-week stretch of twists and turns

Editor’s Note: Projections were recalculated with Ryan Truex replacing Denny Hamlin in the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota this weekend.

With a slew of ovals in the rearview mirror, the next month is set to create some chaos in the NASCAR Cup Series with three road courses (Mexico City, Chicago, Sonoma), a drafting-style track (EchoPark Speedway) and the “Tricky Triangle” of Pocono Raceway.

If you aren’t one of the nine winners already virtually guaranteed a bid in the 16-driver postseason, it’s going to be an uphill battle to maximize stage points and results over the next five races.

Five of the last 10 road-course races were won by drivers getting their first checkered flag on such tracks, so let’s take a look at who could continue that trend ahead of Sunday’s inaugural Cup event at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez (3 p.m. ET, Prime Video, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

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He hasn’t had much good fortune in 2025, but Ty Gibbs immediately jumps out as someone who could flip his third season around and finally get that first Cup win that has evaded him for 102 starts. He owns six top 10s in 15 road-course starts. However, Gibbs has finished 22nd or worse in four of the last five road-course events. Coming off arguably his best run of the year at Michigan, though, could give the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing driver the shot in the arm he needs to finally break through.

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It’s rare that a driver can sit 33rd in the playoff standings and be one of the favorites for an upcoming race, but that is the unique situation Shane van Gisbergen finds himself in.

SVG made his talent known immediately in his first Cup start — winning the inaugural event on the Chicago Street Course. It would come as no surprise if the No. 88 Trackhouse Racing driver wins his way into the playoffs Sunday, and despite not grabbing a checkered flag since Chicago two years ago, he hasn’t slowed down on road courses with five top 10s in seven starts and winning the pole for Sunday’s race.

Christopher Bell has recently blossomed into one of the Cup Series’ best on left- and right-turn circuits and is the most recent winner on such tracks, grabbing the win at the Circuit of The Americas in March.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: On top of his six Cup road-course wins, Larson is on track for his best season to date. His three wins, nine top fives and 11 top 10s are the most he’s had through 15 races in a season.

CHRIS BUESCHER: The most consistent driver on road courses in the Gen 7 car, Buescher has a ludicrous average finish of 8.72 in 18 events since 2022. He outdueled van Gisbergen on the final lap at Watkins Glen last season and comes off a runner-up result at Michigan.

AJ ALLMENDINGER: A threat to win at any road course on the Cup calendar, the No. 16 Kaulig Racing driver has been fast this season and sits just 18 points below the provisional elimination line. All three of his Cup wins have come on road courses, and he’s finished inside the top 10 in five of the last eight road-course events.

MICHAEL MCDOWELL: Not only does the longtime Cup veteran have a road-course win (Indianapolis, 2023), but he has plenty of experience in Mexico as a winner in the Grand-Am Rolex Sports Car Series back in 2005.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE VIVA MEXICO 250

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.