Last weekend’s spotlight at Atlanta was on the first NASCAR In-Season Challenge bracket … and it immediately got blown up. Top seeds Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe were knocked out in a massive crash early in Stage 2, turning the debut of a March Madness-style tournament into true mayhem. Meanwhile, hometown hero Chase Elliott would go on to outduel Brad Keselowski for the win; Elliott is now the new favorite in the bracket, alongside Chris Buescher.
But with the Cup Series heading to Chicago, the driver everyone will be watching isn’t even in the tournament field: Shane van Gisbergen, the road-racing ace who didn’t qualify for the bracket, looms as the favorite to win again on the city streets. We warned everyone a few weeks ago that SVG was a threat to heat up and steal a playoff spot, with a number of road/street courses coming up, and that’s exactly what happened when he took the checkered flag at Mexico City. Now the big question might be whether anyone can deny van Gisbergen another victory on a track featuring both left and right turns — and if so, who?
Let’s run through the 11 drivers most likely to dethrone the street king — along with their key stats, including Adjusted Pts+ (which scales the quality of each driver’s finishes relative to a Cup average of 100) and Driver Rating, on both road courses overall and at Chicago specifically — while breaking down why each one might have what it takes to challenge SVG’s road-course reign. In no particular order:
No. 45 Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing
Chicago career: 2 starts, 0 wins, 1 top fives, 15.0 avg. finish, 193 Pts+, 104.5 Rtg.
Next Gen road courses: 19 starts, 3 wins, 8 top fives, 11.2 avg. finish, 199 Pts+, 101.2 Rtg.
Road course career: 28 starts, 3 wins, 9 top fives, 12.5 avg. finish, 177 Pts+, 94.8 Rtg.
Quick: Who’s the only Cup driver to post a Driver Rating above 100 in both Chicago Street Races? It’s not SVG — yes, he was near-perfect in his debut win (138.1), but he dropped to 83.5 last year after finishing 40th. Instead, the answer is Reddick, who has quietly been the most consistent frontrunner on the streets of Chicago. He was near the lead throughout both races, logging 57 laps in the top 15 (with eight laps led) in the inaugural event, then following it up with a runner-up finish behind Alex Bowman last season. So, this is a guy who feels comfortable in the tight confines of the street setup. And it bears mentioning that Reddick is also one of the Cup Series’ best road-course drivers in general, with a 199 Pts+ index and 101.2 Driver Rating since 2022, both of which are second only to (who else?) van Gisbergen.
No. 9 Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports
Chicago career: 2 starts, 0 wins, 1 top fives, 12.0 avg. finish, 175 Pts+, 80.5 Rtg.
Next-Gen road courses: 18 starts, 0 wins, 10 top fives, 9.8 avg. finish, 193 Pts+, 99.3 Rtg.
Road course career: 37 starts, 7 wins, 21 top fives, 8.8 avg. finish, 227 Pts+, 106.6 Rtg.
Even if Elliott is no longer the undisputed king of NASCAR road racing, he remains among the sport’s elite when it comes to that craft. The Atlanta winner from a week ago owns the second-best average finish of any active driver on road courses in the Next Gen era (9.8), trailing only Chris Buescher (8.8), to go with two poles, 10 top fives and 12 top 10s in 18 starts in that span. Elliott also worked his way up to finish third from a 26th-place start in the 2023 Chicago race, which recalled his climb from 34th to first at Elkhart Lake in his seventh and most recent road victory in 2021. Elliott remains due for another one of those, which would tie Tony Stewart for second-most in Cup history.
No. 13 Will Brown, Kaulig Racing
Chicago career: 0 starts
Next Gen road courses: 1 starts, 0 wins, 0 top 5s, 31.0 avg. finish, 20 Pts+, 60.2 Rtg.
Road course career: 1 starts, 0 wins, 0 top fives, 31.0 avg. finish, 20 Pts+, 60.2 Rtg.
The biggest wild-card name in the field on Sunday is Brown, an Australian Supercars driver straight out of the same mold as van Gisbergen. While his career Supercars resume isn’t quite as stunning as SVG’s was quite yet — he has 11 career wins and one championship; SVG had 81 wins and three titles — Brown is also about a decade younger, and is the defending 2024 Supercars Championship winner. Will that translate to Cup right away? Well, Brown will have to fight against inexperience; he has never run Chicago before and finished 31st in his lone previous NASCAR start, last season at Sonoma. However, given the parallels between Brown and SVG, and the multiple street circuits that populate the Supercars schedule, Brown’s odds to win the Grant Park 165 were getting high — up to +1800 at midweek on DraftKings’ sheet — so bettors clearly think there is some chance for Supercars-ringer lightning to strike twice.
No. 20 Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing
Chicago career: 2 starts, 0 wins, 0 top fives, 27.5 avg. finish, 39 Pts+, 102.5 Rtg.
Next Gen road courses: 19 starts, 2 wins, 7 top fives, 11.6 avg. finish, 187 Pts+, 96.6 Rtg.
Road course career: 28 starts, 3 wins, 9 top fives, 13.6 avg. finish, 174 Pts+, 93.2 Rtg.
Bell has finished no lower than second place in each of the past three Cup Series road-course races, including a win in March at COTA and a runner-up behind SVG at Mexico City a few weeks ago. That impressive consistency is related to Bell’s placement within a five-member club of active drivers (joining van Gisbergen, Reddick, William Byron and Kyle Larson) who’ve won multiple times at road courses in the Next Gen era, officially putting the No. 20 car among company that is as elite as it gets. Bell’s Chicago finishes haven’t been as impressive — he’s gone 18th and 37th so far — but that undersells his true performance, as he led at least a dozen laps in each race and posted Driver Ratings in excess of 91 both times out.
No. 54 Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing
Chicago career: 2 starts, 0 wins, 1 top fives, 6.0 avg. finish, 233 Pts+, 112.0 Rtg.
Next Gen road courses: 16 starts, 0 wins, 4 top fives, 16.7 avg. finish, 124 Pts+, 81.6 Rtg.
Road course career: 16 starts, 0 wins, 4 top fives, 16.7 avg. finish, 124 Pts+, 81.6 Rtg.
Gibbs narrowly (and I mean narrowly) missed the cut for our stat about Reddick and the only drivers in triple-digit Driver Ratings at both Chicago races — he had a 99.9 two years ago, and a 124.1 last year while leading the most laps — finishing top-nine in both races. That has helped give him the best average Driver Rating (112.0) and co-best average finish (6.0) of any driver in their career on the Chicago streets, albeit in a sample size of two races. More broadly, Gibbs is also underrated on road courses, which have tended to be his best track type early in his career, and he’s had some of his best drives of the season recently — he had a 114.6 rating at Mexico City — after a first-half slump. This could be the week Gibbs finally scores that long-awaited first career win.
No. 71 Michael McDowell, Spire Motorsports
Chicago career: 2 starts, 0 wins, 1 top fives, 6.0 avg. finish, 216 Pts+, 81.9 Rtg.
Next Gen road courses: 19 starts, 1 wins, 5 top fives, 12.8 avg. finish, 165 Pts+, 91.1 Rtg.
Road course career: 49 starts, 1 wins, 5 top fives, 19.8 avg. finish, 101 Pts+, 73.1 Rtg.
McDowell’s mid-career glow-up at road courses has spanned practically the entire Next Gen era, and it continues to this very day. After a fifth-place run at Mexico City last month, McDowell has now finished 15th or better in six straight road races — including four top 10s — and 10 of his past 13 starts on road courses. That included a win at the Indianapolis G.P. track in 2023, as well as finishes of seventh and fifth in two tries at Chicago, tying him with Gibbs for the best career average finish of any driver on those streets. With an average start of 4.5 as well — never starting lower than sixth on the grid — McDowell has been good at giving himself early track position at a race with fewer lead changes (8.0) than other road courses (10.6) feature on average since 2022.
No. 48 Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports
Chicago career: 2 starts, 1 wins, 1 top fives, 19.0 avg. finish, 214 Pts+, 83.6 Rtg.
Next Gen road courses: 18 starts, 1 wins, 6 top fives, 14.2 avg. finish, 155 Pts+, 84.1 Rtg.
Road course career: 37 starts, 1 wins, 8 top fives, 15.0 avg. finish, 137 Pts+, 78.3 Rtg.
Bowman doesn’t have quite the same consistency as the other names on the list — before winning here a year ago, he had crashed out and finished 37th in 2023 — but he is still a road-racer to be respected. In a race that was up for grabs after SVG wrecked just 24 laps in, Bowman eventually tracked down Joey Hand (another road-course ringer) and proved Cup regulars could, in fact, win on the streets of Chicago, too.
No. 5 Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports
Chicago career: 2 starts, 0 wins, 1 top fives, 21.5 avg. finish, 130 Pts+, 101.4 Rtg.
Next Gen road courses: 19 starts, 3 wins, 5 top fives, 17.3 avg. finish, 143 Pts+, 89.5 Rtg.
Road course career: 40 starts, 6 wins, 11 top fives, 15.2 avg. finish, 156 Pts+, 94.5 Rtg.
Larson has been all over the place at road courses recently — winning twice but also finishing outside the top 25 five times (including three outside the top 30) in his past nine outings. However, he does have a triple-digit average Driver Rating (101.4) at Chicago, breaking 90 each time out, and his adaptability to different driving conditions comes in handy on a street layout that Cup drivers don’t get a lot of practice in tackling. While road courses aren’t Larson’s absolute forté, they are certainly a weapon in his arsenal.
No. 8 Kyle Busch, Richard Childress Racing
Chicago career: 2 starts, 0 wins, 1 top fives, 7.0 avg. finish, 197 Pts+, 80.7 Rtg.
Next Gen road courses: 19 starts, 0 wins, 6 top fives, 16.3 avg. finish, 139 Pts+, 80.2 Rtg.
Road course career: 60 starts, 4 wins, 21 top fives, 15.0 avg. finish, 170 Pts+, 93.5 Rtg.
In an otherwise highly frustrating season, Busch scored his lone top-five finish on a road course — at COTA — and road racing has arguably been the most reliable part of his driving profile since joining RCR in 2023. That’s especially been the case at Chicago, where Rowdy has a pair of top 10s (and a fifth-place finish) in two starts, even recording one of the fastest laps of the race a year ago. Coming off a run at Mexico City where he crashed out after six laps and finishing last, Busch needs some road-course redemption — and this is a good place for it.
No. 24 William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports
Chicago career: 2 starts, 0 wins, 0 top fives, 10.5 avg. finish, 144 Pts+, 73.2 Rtg.
Next Gen road courses: 19 starts, 2 wins, 6 top fives, 12.7 avg. finish, 167 Pts+, 90.4 Rtg.
Road course career: 34 starts, 2 wins, 6 top fives, 15.6 avg. finish, 137 Pts+, 90.6 Rtg.
Byron has been solid, if not stellar, at Chicago in the past two years — finishing 13th in 2023 and eighth last season, but with Driver Ratings in the low-to-mid 70s both times. (So, barely average.) Leading zero laps and running among the top 15 only 27 percent of the time, he extracted high-quality finishes out of non-dominant performances. Still, the driver of the No. 24 car is one of the better road-course experts in Cup overall, with a 96.2 Driver Rating over the past three seasons. A truly dominant day on the Chicago streets may be coming soon enough.
No. 17 Chris Buescher, RFK Racing
Chicago career: 2 starts, 0 wins, 0 top fives, 15.0 avg. finish, 101 Pts+, 80.1 Rtg.
Next Gen road courses: 19 starts, 1 wins, 4 top fives, 8.8 avg. finish, 185 Pts+, 91.7 Rtg.
Road course career: 39 starts, 1 wins, 6 top fives, 12.9 avg. finish, 141 Pts+, 79.5 Rtg.
Ever since the start of the Next Gen era, Buescher has been an absolute machine on road courses, which one would think makes him a great pick to at least be in a position to contend at Chicago. In his 19 road-course starts since the beginning of the 2022 season, Buescher has 15 top 10s and was among the top 17 in all but two races: The first Next Gen road race (21st at COTA in March 2022) and last year’s Chicago Street race (20th), of all places. That’s why Buescher’s track-specific record here is merely good, not especially great. But he is so consistent at these types of tracks overall that he ought to be a factor this weekend — and we’ve seen him do the unthinkable, hunting down and passing SVG on the final lap for a road-course win, before as well.