With eight races remaining until the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, 12 drivers have clinched a provisional spot in the postseason, and four spots are still up for grabs.
As the Cup Series drivers prepare for Round 2 of the In-Season Challenge on the twists and turns of the Chicago Street Course on Sunday (2 p.m. ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), anything is possible in the “Windy City.”
Shane van Gisbergen, the obvious favorite looking for his second Chicago Street Race win in three years, put his name on the playoff grid after a dominant victory in Mexico City. Following Chase Elliott’s win at his home track of EchoPark Speedway (formerly Atlanta Motor Speedway) last weekend in Georgia, van Gisbergen’s playoff probability slightly dropped from 99.38% to 98.67%.
If the No. 88 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet driver takes the checkered flag on Sunday in “Chi-Town,” his playoff probability will almost certainly jump to 100% and improve his postseason position.
Two drivers who may challenge the superior road-course racer from New Zealand are Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Ty Gibbs. At the moment, Bowman is above the elimination line (plus-39) and 15th on the playoff grid. Meanwhile, Gibbs is below the elimination line (-86) and 25th in the playoff standings.
With Bowman winning last year’s Chicago Street Race and Gibbs being one of SVG’s main challengers last month at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, it would not be a surprise to see them in the mix toward the end in Chicago.
Let’s take a closer look at the playoff bubble entering Chicago and see which drivers need to have a good race in Grant Park.
RELATED: Chicago schedule | Cup Series standings
GREEN FLAG [Drivers in a great spot for Chicago]
After a much-needed top five last weekend at Atlanta, 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick left Georgia 128 points above the elimination line with a 96.24% playoff probability. That might sound like a comfortable spot to be in for now, but if new winners emerge in the next eight weeks, Reddick could go from comfortable to uncomfortable quickly without a win.
Reddick finished runner-up in last year’s Chicago Street Race behind winner Alex Bowman as the 23XI driver made a late-race charge at the Hendrick Motorsports pilot for the lead. Unfortunately, Reddick brushed the wall on the last lap and watched Bowman sail into the Chicago sunset.
Scoring his first top-five since the Darlington Raceway spring race in April and having three road-course wins on his resume, the No. 45 team can use Chicago as a place to start building momentum as the regular season winds down. As the No. 23 seed in the In-Season Challenge, Reddick will also have an eye on his opponent for Round 2, No. 26 seed Carson Hocevar.
RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher is only 52 points above the elimination line, so a poor result in the coming weeks could put the No. 17 Ford driver in a pickle. With a 75.57% playoff probability, Buescher enters Chicago on a high note with five top 10s in the last seven races, including four consecutive top-10 finishes.
In two Chicago Street Course starts, Buescher’s best finish was 10th in 2023 and earned a road-course win last year, outdueling Shane van Gisbergen at Watkins Glen International. The RFK driver also has seven top 10s in the last nine road-course races.
Buescher has taken down SVG before, and he could certainly do it again … this time to clinch his playoff spot with a win. In addition, Buescher (No. 3 seed) will have a close eye on his opponent, No. 14 seed Zane Smith, in the In-Season Challenge.
YELLOW FLAG [Drivers on the fringe for Chicago]
A year ago, Alex Bowman came to Chicago and won the race to lock himself and the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team into the playoffs. As the defending Chicago Street Race winner, he has the potential to repeat in 2025.
Last month, Bowman got a top five in Mexico City and has six top 10s in the last 10 road-course races. With a 42.37% playoff probability, do not be surprised if Bowman is running toward the front at the end of the Grant Park 165.
After surviving a chaotic race at EchoPark Speedway last weekend, Bowman (No. 8 seed) will also be on the lookout for In-Season Challenge opponent No. 9 seed Bubba Wallace, who made contact with the Hendrick driver to show his displeasure after last year’s street race in the “Windy City.”
Before an untimely caution led to a loss of track position, it seemed like the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota of Ty Gibbs was the only driver who could keep up with Shane van Gisbergen in Mexico City. Although it has not been the year Gibbs had hoped for up to this point, he is currently riding a streak of four straight top-15 finishes entering Chicago.
Gibbs’ current playoff probability is 19.61%, and he sits 25th in the playoff standings. The Chicago Street Race might be the perfect opportunity for the JGR driver to finally capture his long-awaited first career Cup Series victory in start No. 106 and turn around a character-building season.
In two starts on downtown city streets, Gibbs has an average finish of 6.0, which is his best average among all active tracks. Additionally, the No. 6 seed in the In-Season Challenge will also go against the No. 22 seed, AJ Allmendinger, in Round 2.
RACING INSIGHTS: Full race projections for Chicago
RED FLAG [Drivers I’m concerned about heading to Chicago]
Twenty-three points above the elimination line and 16th in the playoff standings, Bubba Wallace is on the bubble entering Chicago. With the next two Cup Series races consisting of left and right turns, plus a playoff probability of 42.99%, the 23XI Racing driver could be in trouble.
In his last 13 road-course starts, Wallace has only a single top-10 finish, a ninth-place result last year at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval. The No. 23 team is facing plenty of pressure in trying to keep a provisional playoff spot and snap a 97-race winless streak.
As Wallace has admitted many times that road-course racing is not his greatest strength as a driver, he will need to have a good day to avoid losing valuable points, so maybe crew chief Charles Denike will prioritize scoring stage points. In Round 2 of the In-Season Challenge, as mentioned above, Wallace will face Alex Bowman.
RFK Racing owner/driver Brad Keselowski had his strongest result of the 2025 Cup Series season last Saturday at Atlanta after finishing second. Sitting at an 18.31% playoff probability, with Chicago and Sonoma Raceway up next on the schedule, it could be a long two weeks for the No. 6 Ford.
While Keselowski has been stepping it up lately with strong speed and executing complete races with four top 10s in the last six races, he does not have any top 10s in the last 17 road-course races. With eight races to go until the playoffs and 122 points below the elimination line, it might be best for the No. 6 team to simply get through Chicago and Sonoma, then go all out to win one of the remaining oval races in the regular season.
No. 17 seed Keselowski will be matched up against No. 32 seed Ty Dillon in the second round of the In-Season Challenge.