Racing Insights: Can Bell break bad luck or will new winner emerge at Chicago?

The NASCAR Cup Series heads back to the concrete jungle in Chicago for the third annual Grant Park 165 and Round 2 of the In-Season Challenge, where 16 drivers have eyes on advancing but half will see their hopes of a $1 million payday come to an end (Sun., 2 p.m. ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

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Of course, the driver that’s going to be tough to beat for the overall win is Shane van Gisbergen, who already has a dominant road-course dub in hand this season (Mexico City) and earned his first Cup Series checkered flag in his NASCAR debut two years ago in this same race. His Australian Supercars background and competition on street circuits in the past give him a leg up over the Cup Series field when it comes to this contest, but there is one driver who could give the Kiwi a run for his money this weekend.

Christopher Bell has led 51 laps across both street races, swept the stages in 2023 and ranks second in Speed Rating on the Chicago Street Course, according to NASCAR Insights. However, his best finish in two Chicago starts is 18th. Good luck has yet to blow his way in the “Windy City” with an incident last year and an unlucky strategy the year prior. However, on road courses this year, Bell is the only driver to rank in the top three in Speed Rating, Long Run Speed Rating, Passer Rating and Restart Rating, signaling he should be a threat yet again in Chicago.

The No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has cooled since ripping off three consecutive wins in the first four races this year and needs a rebound after three finishes of 16th or worse in the last four races. Although he finished runner-up to van Gisbergen in Mexico City (albeit by 16.5 seconds), this weekend is a chance for him to get revenge on the Trackhouse Racing driver.

It’s worth noting, though, that both Chicago winners secured the first win of their respective seasons, and a few names stand out as possible candidates to continue that trend and provisionally secure a spot in the Cup Series Playoffs.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

ALEX BOWMAN: After a slump of finishing 27th or worse in seven of the nine races, Bowman has finished 11th or better in the last three, including two top fives to find momentum at the right time toward defending his Chicago win a year ago.

TYLER REDDICK: Last year’s runner-up has arguably been the best driver on road courses in the Next Gen era, owning the most laps led (206) and points (614) and tying for the most poles (three), wins (three) and stage wins (four). He additionally has the second-most top fives (eight) and top 10s (13) since 2022.

TY GIBBS: Still looking for his first Cup Series win, Chicago presents a good opportunity for Gibbs to break through. He leads all drivers in points scored on the street course and is one of three drivers to score top 10s in both races. Gibbs has also led the third-most laps on road courses this year.

MICHAEL MCDOWELL: One of the other drivers to finish top 10 in both Chicago races, McDowell has notched 11 top 10s in 19 road-course races since 2022. It’s also been 66 races since McDowell last visited Victory Lane, doing so on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in 2023.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE GRANT PARK 165

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.