Road-course stalwart Shane van Gisbergen looks unstoppable right now on tracks where NASCAR Cup Series drivers turn left and right, securing a second Chicago Street Race victory and second win of 2025 in the past month to significantly bolster his playoff positioning.
With only a handful of races left in the regular season, will fellow road-course standout AJ Allmendinger jumble the postseason picture even further this weekend in California?
NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the top 20 Cup Series contenders after the Chicago Street Race and before Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
RELATED: 2025 Cup Series schedule | Full Cup Series standings
Analysis: Elliott’s 16th-place finish in Chicago was a case of damage control after starting at the tail of the field and battling through traffic, but he inches closer to the points lead — which is suddenly within reach. Sonoma has been a happy hunting ground for Elliott with six top 10s in eight starts, but the strong road racer has yet to win there.
Analysis: Larson brought the No. 5 home with a mediocre 13th-place finish in Chicago, but he remains in the mix for the all-important Regular Season Championship. Returning to his home track, the 2021 and 2024 Sonoma winner is always a threat on road courses, especially given his ability to qualify up front and control the race’s rhythm.
Analysis: Hamlin powered from the rear to fourth in Chicago, notching his ninth top five of the year and staying fourth in points. While Sonoma is one of the few major tracks he’s never conquered, four career top fives and recent momentum make him a prime candidate to finally break through.
Analysis: Byron’s day in Chicago ended on Lap 1, relegating him to 40th on the results sheet amid a tough stretch for No. 24. Despite a 30th-place finish at Sonoma last year, he’ll be looking to rebound on a track that rewards precision, and his smooth, methodical style suits the California road course well.
Analysis: Reddick surged to a podium finish in Chicago, his best since Circuit of The Americas, as he continues to shine on road courses. With three Cup road-course wins and a P8 at Sonoma last year, his aggressive approach and exceptional braking skill make him a legitimate threat to officially join the playoff party this weekend.
Analysis: A late-race tangle dropped Bell to 24th at Chicago, but he’s been one of the most improved road racers in the series over the past several years and gets another crack this weekend. After his first two Sonoma starts saw him finish outside the top 20, his past two each yielded a top 10.
Analysis: Blaney’s 12th-place effort in Chicago was a steady points day (as many earned as runner-up Ty Gibbs) as he looks to build momentum heading west. While he’s only finished in the top five once at Sonoma, his road-course form has improved and he shouldn’t be counted out this weekend.
Analysis: Chastain grabbed his ninth top 10 of the season with a gritty P10 at Chicago, continuing his trend of aggressive, race-shaping performances that often end in post-race peril. Riding four straight Sonoma top 10s and culminating in his first top five there last year, No. 1 may be primed for win No. 2 of the season.
Analysis: Bowman delivered a strong eighth-place result in Chicago — after a brief run-in with ISC competitor Bubba Wallace — marking his 10th top-10 this year as he continues building quiet momentum. He’s proven capable on road courses, obviously, but Sonoma has been a bit of a struggle for No. 48, who averages a finish of 17.3 there with just a pair of top 10s over the past decade. 
Analysis: Briscoe started fifth in Chicago but faded to 23rd after late contact, continuing a streak of up-and-down results. Still searching for his first Sonoma top-10 result, No. 19’s qualifying speed and flashes of road-course ability suggest a Wine Country breakthrough could be near. 
Analysis: Buescher’s 18th-place run at Chicago was a rare dip in an otherwise consistent season, especially coming on a road course. A Sonoma win, however, feels imminent for No. 17, who led 32 laps there last year amid three straight finishes of fourth or better. 
Analysis: Logano’s 11th-place finish in Chicago was a solid points day as he looks to regain midseason momentum to take with him into his title defense in the playoffs. He’s logged two top 10s at Sonoma in the past four years but led 16 laps from the pole last year before finishing 21st. 
Analysis: Preece continued his mid-season surge with a seventh-place finish at Chicago — his fifth top-10 run in the past eight races. He’s yet to have one of those at Sonoma but has shown marked improvement on road courses this year and could surprise if the race turns unpredictable.
Analysis: Wallace’s day unraveled late in Chicago, leading to a 28th-place finish and a need for a rebound. Still seeking a finish better than 14th at Sonoma, the veteran could be aiming for a clean, points-paying day to steady his playoff hopes rather than shooting for the win. 
Analysis: Allmendinger stormed to sixth at Chicago — his best finish since Charlotte — reminding the field of his road-course prowess after being shut out of the top 10 at COTA and Mexico City. A former Sonoma polesitter and three-time Cup road-course winner, he’s always a threat to steal the spotlight when the series turns right and could be next to shake up the playoff picture. 
Analysis: SVG dominated the entire Chicago weekend, leading 26 laps on Sunday en route to his second Cup win in recent weeks and proving there’s nobody better on road courses at the moment. Making his Sonoma Cup debut, the three-time Supercars champion may just go back-to-back. 
Analysis: Busch’s fifth-place finish at Chicago was a much-needed boost in a season filled with constant ups and downs. The two-time Sonoma winner (2008, 2015) has a long history of excelling on road courses and needs another strong run to solidify his playoff position as things start to get down to the wire.
Analysis: Gibbs scored a career-best second-place finish at Chicago, climbing in the standings and continuing his steady progression as he inches closer to his first Cup win. Sonoma has been a rough go for him in his first two trips out west (27.5 average finish), but he’s demonstrating to be a strong road racer and could actually turn some heads again. 
Analysis: Cindric’s 27th at Chicago was another setback in a stretch that sees him with just one top 10 since winning at Talladega, but his road-course pedigree remains an asset. No. 2 opened his Sonoma Cup career with a P5 there in 2022 and hasn’t found the top 20 since, but there’s still little reason to believe he can’t contend this weekend given his background. 
Analysis: Berry landed 34th at Chicago, finishing 30th or worse for the third time in six races — a stretch that also includes zero top 10s or laps led. A failed suspension sent him to P32 (after starting 32nd) last year at Sonoma, and a turnaround does not seem likely for him this weekend.