Racing Insights: Ty Gibbs’ first Cup win is closer than you think

It’s the summer of Shane van Gisbergen in 2025. Two road courses down this summer and two to go until the Cup Series Playoffs, van Gisbergen has a 100% win rate and now there’s a strong chance he could be leading the entire series in victories once the checkered flag flies at Watkins Glen International in a month.

SVG will be the favorite for his third win of the year Sunday at Sonoma Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), but other drivers are lurking just behind to topple the No. 88 Trackhouse Racing driver’s road-course dominion.

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Few drivers have even come close to matching van Gisbergen’s pace, but one driver who’s surging during this stretch of three road courses in five weeks is Ty Gibbs.

The first 14 races of this year had Gibbs all but written off at any shot of breaking through for that long-awaited first Cup triumph, but the script has flipped this summer for the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing team. Dating back to Michigan five races ago, Gibbs hasn’t finished worse than 14th, and road courses have once again been a bright spot for the third-year Cup wheelman as he led 27 laps in Mexico City and was runner-up to van Gisbergen last Sunday at Chicago.

According to Racing Insights, Gibbs ranks top 10 in passing, defense and restarts on road courses this season and slots fourth in average running position at 10.92.

Sonoma hasn’t been the kindest to Gibbs in his two starts — average finish of 27.5 — however, Sunday may prove that the 22-year-old is ready to write the next chapter in his early Cup career.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: Larson has been in a relative slump lately with four finishes outside the top 10 in the last seven races; however, he can quickly turn that around in his home state on Sunday. Larson owns two wins at Sonoma (including last year) and has won four poles on the road course.

MICHAEL MCDOWELL: If it weren’t for a mechanical failure, it looked like Chicago could’ve been the place McDowell was going to score his first win with Spire Motorsports. Alas, that didn’t happen, and the No. 71 driver still needs a victory to make the playoffs. On paper, Sonoma is the best chance for McDowell to clinch that berth. He ranks first in speed and long-run pace at the road course in the Next Gen car and hasn’t finished worse than seventh.

CHRIS BUESCHER: In the Next Gen era at Sonoma, Buescher has placed everywhere in the top five except fifth or first. He’d certainly prefer the latter this weekend as he holds just a 35-point buffer to the playoff cutline. At Sonoma, Buescher ranks top five in speed, long-run pace and restarts.

ROSS CHASTAIN: The Trackhouse Racing driver had quite the eventful end to Chicago after a late-race run-in and confrontation with Joey Logano, but Chastain still walked away with a top 10 after the dust settled. Sonoma has been kind to Chastain with top 10s in his last four starts, including a best of fifth place in last year’s event. Chastain also ranks first in restarts at the California course.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE TOYOTA/SAVE MART 350

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.