Shane van Gisbergen continued his path of dominating the NASCAR Cup Series on road courses on Sunday at Sonoma Raceway, winning his third such race in the past five weeks — but the “Monster Mile” looms, and it should open the playing field back up considerably.
Past Dover Motor Speedway winner Kyle Larson has slipped over the past two months, starting with a P37 stumble at Charlotte Motor Speedway on the back half of his Memorial Day “Double,” averaging a 19.75 finish over the eight races from the Coca-Cola 600 to Sonoma. Will it all turn around for him this weekend in Delaware?
NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the top 20 Cup Series contenders after the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway and before Sunday’s AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover Motor Speedway (2 p.m. ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
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Analysis: Elliott’s third-place charge at Sonoma marked his seventh top five of 2025, further cementing his status as the field’s most consistent threat. He’s a two-time Dover winner (2018, ’22) and has three top-five runs in his last four starts at the “Monster Mile,” making him a clear favorite this weekend.
Analysis: Byron rebounded from a Chicago DNF with an eighth-place finish at Sonoma, keeping himself firmly atop the title hunt. No. 24 has three finishes of exactly fourth in the past five races there and is looking to recapture his early-season dominance.
Analysis: Reddick’s finish of sixth at Sonoma was his third straight top-six run, continuing a strong summer stretch as he still seeks win No. 1 of the year. Still searching for his first Dover win as well, he’s shown legitimate pace on concrete and is trending upward at the right time. 
Analysis: A 20th-place result at Sonoma was a rare (but perhaps expected, based on track history) stumble for the steady Hamlin, but his Dover résumé is elite: two wins, nearly 1,000 laps led and he enters as the defending winner. He’s a perennial threat at the “Monster Mile” and very likely will battle for the win.
Analysis: Larson’s Sonoma race ended in 35th — a year after winning it — as his post-Indianapolis 500/Coca-Cola 600 stumble continues. With a pristine Dover history and a reputation for taming the high line, however, a threat to finally rebound in dominant fashion lies in wait this weekend. 
Analysis: Bell’s fifth-place run at Sonoma was his eighth top five of the year, underscoring a quietly strong campaign that made a lot of noise early but has maintained a consistent hum. He’s yet to win at Dover but feels like he’s due to reclaim the series lead in 2025 wins sooner or later.
Analysis: Briscoe’s runner-up finish at Sonoma was his best ever at a road course in Cup, showcasing smart strategy and execution as he did anything and everything to try to catch SVG. While he’s still searching for a first Dover top 10, his recent momentum and improved long-run pace suggest that breakthrough may be close — especially at a track that has been kind to the No. 19 car in recent years.
Analysis: Blaney’s 36th-place result at Sonoma was a setback, and that’s now three finishes outside the top 10 for the second time this season. No. 12 has steadily improved at Dover over his career, but still holds just one top five there across 14 starts and this may not be the weekend he adds a second.
Analysis: Chastain won Stage 1 at Sonoma but faded to 24th after a rough final segment (not to mention a run-in with his teammate). He’s been among the elite at Dover the past few seasons and his elbows-out style will eventually pay off at the “Monster Mile,” perhaps as soon as Sunday.
Analysis: Logano’s ninth at Sonoma was a solid points day, but more importantly stopped a five-race skid outside the top 10. While he’s surprisingly never won a Cup points race at Dover, he holds a respectable 14.5 average finish despite just 41 laps led in a whopping 28 starts.
Analysis: There’s no other way to look at it — Sonoma was a miss for Buescher, who felt ready to crack through to Victory Lane there and secure his very tenuous playoff bid but instead landed just 16th. He’s clearly improved over time at Dover as well, however, so he could strike this weekend but No. 17 is running out of time.
Analysis: Bowman finished 19th at Sonoma with just 18 points to drop him out of the top 10 in the standings, but he’s a Cup winner at Dover (2021) and recent history deems it’s one of his best tracks. A top-five run this weekend is definitely possible and would go a long way to solidifying a shaky playoff outlook for him.
Analysis: Preece isn’t quite competing for wins just yet, but the steady New Englander has finished outside the top 15 just once since the first race in May at Texas as he builds an ever-stronger playoff case. That’ll be put to the test this weekend at Dover, where he’s literally never finished inside the top 15 in eight starts.
Analysis: Wallace is hanging onto the final playoff spot for dear life after a 26th-place (but ultimately reasonably productive, with 26 points) run at Sonoma. Dover has given him nothing but challenges his entire career — with no top 10s and just one lap led in 10 starts — and it’s entirely conceivable he’s not in the provisional playoff field come Monday morning.
Analysis: SVG is on the kind of tear right now that turns drivers into legends, but is it about to all come to a screeching halt? Dover tends to give every newcomer a hard time, and though he did fare reasonably well in his first Xfinity Series start there last year (started 31st, finished 18th), asking for even a top 10 in his first Cup try this weekend is a tall task, even as hot as he is.
Analysis: Nothing to hang his hat on just yet, but Sonoma’s 10th-place run did mark consecutive top 10s for Busch for the first time since the first handful of weeks of the season. The two-time Cup champ has a trio of Dover wins to his credit, and if his No. 8 team hits the setup right this weekend, it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if the drought ends in Dover. Just saying.
Analysis: As maligned as he’s been the first half of the year, Gibbs has absolutely turned things around in a big way over the past month-plus, with an 8.5 average finish over the past six races. He’s fared reasonably well at Dover in his early career as well, and landed in the top 10 there last year.
Analysis: McDowell’s fourth at Sonoma was another showcase of his road-course prowess, but ultimately doesn’t do a whole lot for his playoff hopes, as a win may be his most likely path. Expect that 70-point gap to the elimination line to grow larger this weekend, as Dover lines up as perhaps McDowell’s worst track — he’s yet to even land a top 15 there in 24 tries.
Analysis: Berry landed P13 on the charts when all was said at Sonoma, and perhaps finished even a spot higher in the running order by taking things into his own hands. He actually does own a top-10 finish among his three starts there, with one caveat — it came while subbing in for Alex Bowman in the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet.
Analysis: Cindric’s road-course prowess seems to have all but disappeared at the Cup level, with a P30 run at Sonoma making it 0-for-4 on top-10 finishes on them in 2025. That said, he’s gained about 10 spots from year to year in each of his Dover finishes, so maybe he’s got a top-five run in him this weekend after landing P15 there last year (and 26th and 36th the two seasons before, respectively).