Two-time defending Daytona 500 winner William Byron and No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports crew chief Rudy Fugle deployed a brilliant fuel strategy Sunday at Iowa Speedway to corral win No. 2 and reclaim the NASCAR Cup Series points lead. Byron’s playoff spot was locked down in February, but defending Watkins Glen winner Chris Buescher holds onto the final provisional playoff spot – and is anything but secure. Will he go back-to-back and nail down his postseason status?
NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the top 20 Cup Series contenders after the Iowa Corn 350 at Iowa Speedway and before Sunday’s Go Bowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen International (2 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
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Analysis: Sunday felt like a significant shift (or even a correction) in the hierarchy of power in the Cup Series, with the best driver of 2025 finally re-establishing his title-favorite status and winning his first race since February. Iowa provided an oddly necessary sigh of relief for an exceptional No. 24 group, which honestly might just go out and rip off two in a row on Sunday at Watkins Glen.
Analysis: Elliott didn’t have an awful Iowa race, leading 11 laps and still finishing inside the top 15, but No. 9 did walk out of the “Hawkeye State” without the points lead that he walked in with. This weekend would be a great time for the 2020 champ to finally add an eighth road-course win, and if he does, it’ll be his third overall at the New York facility.
Analysis: The frustration of Iowa more fit the trend of Larson’s summer as a whole rather than his brief respite of top fives in the two weeks leading in, and it’s a bit concerning given the team’s emphasis on the track and its similarity to the championship site at Phoenix. That said, all of those frustrations could be washed away in quick order by the end of the weekend, as the two-time WGI winner should be up for the checkered again this Sunday. 
Analysis: The short-track master Hamlin had high hopes for his return to Iowa Speedway after leading 81 laps before finishing 34th in the inaugural event last year, but those hopes were squandered with a 24th-place finish. Watkins Glen is an odd track for him, with just 21 laps led across the veteran’s 18 career starts there, and yet he’s got a win and five top fives in the last eight races at the track.
Analysis: Blaney was certainly in contention for a second straight Iowa win, which also certainly bodes well for Team Penske’s title hopes later this season at Phoenix, a track it seems to have mastered and shares similarities with the Newton facility. A track Blaney is still working on, however, is Watkins Glen, where No. 12 has led just a pair of laps in his career and just one top 10 this decade.
Analysis: Bell has three wins in the books, so he didn’t necessarily need a strong run, but Iowa, on paper, looked like a spot he could potentially bolster his positioning with and he instead scored his fewest points in a month. The three-time road-course winner surprisingly has yet to lead a lap at Watkins Glen despite three top-10 finishes in four starts there, but he could change that Sunday.
Analysis: Briscoe just continues to get stronger and stronger as he gets more familiar with his new surroundings and builds his relationship with crew chief James Small. Past No. 19 Toyota driver Martin Truex Jr. had plenty of success at the two upcoming tracks, and it feels like Briscoe could win multiple races the rest of the way. Perhaps one of them comes soon.
Analysis: Bowman, by now, is used to being the Hendrick Motorsports driver that flies under the radar, but his 8.0 average finish across the past eight races is just as elite as the trio atop the standings. He’ll put that to the test this weekend, though, as Bowman – who has shown he’s capable of winning on road courses – has yet to even crack the top 10 in his eight Watkins Glen appearances.
Analysis: Byron won the race, but Wallace might’ve had the most impressive afternoon after being two laps down with 80 to go on Sunday before clawing back to finish a mesmerizing sixth. He’s on quite a roll and will get a heat check at The Glen as well, where, like Bowman, he also hasn’t landed a top 10 yet.
ON YOUTUBE: Watch Wallace slice his way from 32nd to sixth
Analysis: It’s hard to believe we’re three races away from the end of the 2025 regular season and the reigning Regular Season Champion is still winless. He’s on a three-race skid outside the top 10, but Reddick’s first three Watkins Glen starts all yielded finishes inside of it, so that could be halted on Sunday.
Analysis: It’s also surprising to see the reigning Cup Series champion turning in his worst average finish to date at Team Penske, but that’s where we’re at with Logano, who’s posted a 17.3 average through 23 races in 2025. Iowa was a step in the right direction, however, and Logano is a former winner at The Glen; perhaps the reversal has begun. 
Analysis: Chastain had a perfectly fine race at Iowa with an 11th-place run, but failed to capitalize on what appeared to be a spot he could win. Last year’s Watkins Glen pole winner led the field for 51 laps there – so, maybe this is going to be his weekend, instead.
Analysis: Preece’s long-talked-about talent is finally starting to shine through on a weekly basis as his first career playoff appearance becomes more and more of a potential reality. Watkins Glen marked the site of one of his five top 10s last year, and he now drives for the team that won the race, so he should keep it rolling on Sunday.
Analysis: Of course, Buescher is the driver who actually won that race last year, and this weekend sparks the start of a crucial three-race stretch for him. The No. 17 driver has won at every remaining regular-season track and has been excellent at The Glen the past three years. Now’s his shot.
Analysis: Cindric wound up just outside the top 10 at Iowa in 12th but has now led a combined 60 laps the past two weeks after a combined 25 in the previous 10. It does feel like he’s got a Cup Series road-course win in him at some point, so why not now, when he’s running well and the pressure’s off? 
Analysis: Busch seems to be able to do just enough to hang around and get to the finish of races these days, but the opportunities to find the front of the field are few and far between – No. 8 has just seven laps led since Circuit of The Americas in March. The two-time Watkins Glen winner and two-time champion, however, should never be counted out, especially with a playoff spot on the line.
Analysis: Berry appeared set to contend for his first top 10 since early May, but it never quite materialized for the short-track ace in the Midwest. His lone start at The Glen wasn’t a favorable one, either, and this weekend might not be one where he picks up a lot of momentum heading into his first Cup playoff run. 
Analysis: Gibbs thus far has the exact same average finish (17.4) as last year, but nearly all of his other top-level stats are trailing down from his sophomore campaign. He could use a boost as he still looks for his first Cup win, and, notably, he did turn in a top five at The Glen in 2023. 
Analysis: Iowa is not a simple track, but SVG hung in there for a good portion of the race before things unraveled for him while running eighth. Obviously, he will be the favorite this weekend after his torrid pace on road courses this year and his very near win at The Glen a season ago.
Analysis: Keselowski is back in a big way, leaping a whopping five spots in the standings as he’s suddenly points-relevant again. It’s almost certainly too little, too late in that department, and a win is likely needed to make the playoffs, but he’s clearly capable of doing so right now. It’s never happened before, but he’s looked quite capable of winning at Watkins Glen in the past as well. Now would be the most fitting time for No. 1 to happen.