While three races remain before the 16-driver Cup Series playoff field locks before the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway, Sunday’s affair at Watkins Glen International (2 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) is the likeliest spot for Michael McDowell or AJ Allmendinger to play spoiler and flip the postseason picture on its head.
The pair of road-course ringers have been hit-or-miss on the left and right-turn circuits this season. Allmendinger has struggled in particular, with just one top 10 coming at Chicago.
McDowell put together top-five runs in Mexico City and Sonoma Raceway and had the dominant car at Chicago before a mechanical failure parachuted the No. 71 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet team to a 32nd-place result.
The silver lining for Allmendinger and McDowell is that they both have success at The Glen. Allmendinger has a career average finish of 10.8 at the New York road course, which is his best among all active Cup tracks. He also scored his first career win at Watkins Glen in 2014. McDowell’s streak of luck at The Glen has all come in the Next Gen car, with two top 10s in the last three events.
Before the green flag drops Sunday, let’s take a closer look at the playoff bubble and see who is lined up to virtually lock themselves into the postseason and who could see their championship hopes crumble.
RELATED: Watkins Glen schedule | Cup Series standings
GREEN FLAG [Who’s in a great spot for Watkins Glen]
Sunday could easily be the day Tyler Reddick (98.70% playoff probability) finally hurdles the 2025 obstacle of not getting to Victory Lane. As long as the drivers mentioned above don’t steal the show at Watkins Glen, the No. 45 23XI Racing driver will go playoff dancing for a sixth consecutive season. Reddick owns three top 10s in four starts at The Glen, with a best finish of seventh in 2022. He’s also tied with Chris Buescher for most top 10s on road courses in the Next Gen car (15).
YELLOW FLAG [Who’s on the fringe for Watkins Glen]
Alex Bowman (88.4% playoff probability) dips here despite being on a pretty hot stretch. The No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet driver has finished 11th or better in seven of the last eight races, with three top fives for good measure. His average finish in that span (8.0) is second to teammate Chase Elliott (7.63), who has finished inside the top 20 in every race in 2025. While Bowman is one of the better road-course racers in the Cup field, he has a real struggle point at Watkins Glen, with no top 10s in eight starts and an average finish of just 21st. It’s one thing if Bowman falls to the 16th spot if a new winner emerges from outside the bubble. However, he can’t allow for either Buescher or Ryan Preece to chip away at his points cushion (plus-40 above Buescher entering Sunday) and will likely need to have a career-best day at The Glen to feel comfortable going to Richmond Raceway.
RACING INSIGHTS: Full race projections for Watkins Glen
RED FLAG [Who I’m concerned about heading to Watkins Glen]
Because he’s the last driver currently in, it has to be Buescher. His playoff probability stands at just 52.13%, and he hasn’t helped his case much this summer, with just one top 10 in the last five races. Buescher’s knack for road courses did not come to fruition at Sonoma and Chicago as a mechanical issue stumped the RFK No. 17 team in the Windy City, and Buescher couldn’t make up any ground from the midpack in Wine Country.
However, Buescher is the defending winner at Watkins Glen, getting the best of Shane van Gisbergen out of the bus stop section to take his lone victory in 2024. Van Gisbergen will be the clear favorite to score his fourth victory of the season, but Buescher will be in the mix Sunday and for the rest of the regular season as he also owns victories at Richmond and Daytona International Speedway.