Here’s what’s happening in NASCAR with the Go Bowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen International in the rearview and Saturday’s Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway (7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) up next.
MORE: Richmond entry list
1. Last gasp for playoff hopefuls is here – what now?
The playoff bubble is overflowing with former short-track winners, and Richmond is their last chance to avoid Daytona desperation.
As the playoff field continues to firm up weekly, the calendar inches toward September’s Southern 500 opener at Darlington Raceway with just a pair of opportunities remaining for the final three postseason bids to be snagged.
We now turn this weekend to Richmond Raceway, with its chess-match pit strategies and technically precise track demands, followed by Daytona International Speedway, where chaos reigns and surprises, both throughout the race and often at the checkered flag, are guaranteed. Five drivers below the elimination line have already conquered Richmond in their careers — more on that later — and they’ll look to repeat that short-track magic in order to avoid having to pull a rabbit out of a hat the following weekend in a wild superspeedway shootout.
Veteran stars like Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski – each a past champion – and veterans Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Erik Jones and AJ Allmendinger are among the 10 drivers outside the playoff bubble with past Cup Series wins, collectively owning 120 career victories. Each not only brings a proven record (along with nearly all of them being playoff drivers in past seasons), but each also carries the desperation of trying to make sure the season’s first 24-plus weeks have not gone for naught in search of a postseason bid. Will this pressure bring out their best, or just further expose season-long cracks?
RELATED: Cup Series standings | 2025 schedule
Many of these drivers turn to Richmond for hope because none of them wants to be forced to rely on trying to cash in on the sport’s most unpredictable track.
Richmond will be about mastery of pit cycles (there have been at least three green-flag pit cycles in each of the last eight races), and familiarity with those demands and how to execute them effectively is the key to being there at the end. History indicates that sharp execution in a race like this — rather than outright speed suddenly arriving in Race 25 — can lift a bubble contender into playoff security.
Recent weeks have shown just how volatile the playoff picture remains, too.
RFK Racing teammates Chris Buescher (+34) and Preece (-34) are the focal point, currently on either side of the bubble. Both are capable of winning either of the two remaining races, however, and each is on a hot streak. And a handful of hopefuls aim to capitalize on their past history the next two weekends, with Richmond offering the final shot at control and Daytona looms as the last-ditch “Hail Mary.”
Soon, the grid will be set. Experience, tactical acumen and split-second execution will shape the final 16-entrant field – all of which will come into play, albeit very differently, each of the next two weekends.
For the sport’s seasoned stars, Richmond marks the last, best chance to escape the bubble and control their own fate before the playoff party begins following Florida’s fireworks.
2. Playoff action set to ignite early under the lights at Richmond?
The playoff atmosphere is thick, and Richmond Raceway’s contest under the lights on Saturday marks the final chance for a driver to take fate into his own hands and punch his postseason ticket on the short track. The only problem? The Virginia track doesn’t typically leave much room for surprises or first-time winners.
Now that the stage is set, what’s actually going to happen under the lights on Saturday?
The playoff tension is peaking as NASCAR storms into Richmond, and it legitimately feels like the postseason is already here, yet there’s still so much to decide between the final three berths and crowning a Regular Season Champion.
Saturday’s race carries a special edge: statistically, Richmond tends to deliver few surprises – but plenty of drama. Despite the youth movement rippling through the sport, only one winner under age 30 has taken the checkered flag there in the last 13 trips, a gauntlet of experience the next generation can’t ignore.
Richmond’s recent history really is a testament to savvy veterans. Young, under-30 stars like William Byron and Chase Elliott (each chasing the RSC) and drivers like Ty Gibbs, Carson Hocevar, Erik Jones and John Hunter Nemechek (all in must-win mode to make the playoffs) arrive fiercely motivated to take the checkered flag at the unique short track, but face a venue where experience decisively trumps raw speed. It’s hard to look past that glaring stat above and may temper hopes of a shocker a bit, putting the spotlight firmly on NASCAR’s established core.
Those banking on a true breakthrough, while possible, will face steep odds.
The last 39 Richmond races have failed to produce a first-time Cup Series winner. Kasey Kahne’s 2005 triumph remains the track’s most recent Cinderella story, despite competitive parity at other short tracks. Joe Gibbs Racing excels at Richmond (winner of 10 of the past 18 races there), but this trend likely scratches Ty Gibbs (along with Spire’s Hocevar and Legacy’s Nemechek) from winning contention, especially with the No. 54 mired in a three-race slump heading into the weekend and some internal issues to iron out.
Perhaps the most interesting name coming into Richmond? Kyle Busch.
Once the archetype of Richmond mastery, “Rowdy” has gone cold in the state of Virginia. With six wins in 38 starts — most among active drivers — and 28 top-10s here, his Richmond legacy is cemented, but Busch has found just one top 10 in the past four visits, and none in his last 12 short-track starts overall. The two-time champ’s winless streak is up to 81 races, the worst of his career, with no wins in 2024, thus ending his record streak of 19 consecutive winning seasons and missing the playoffs. He appears set to repeat last year’s shortcomings, but – speaking of last year – his teammate Austin Dillon enters as the defending Richmond winner, and I certainly wouldn’t recommend betting against Busch with his back against the wall like this and potentially a car he can work with.
But, this is all to say … everybody might be chasing one guy, as Richmond’s surest favorite is Virginia native and four-time 2025 winner Denny Hamlin. No. 11’s numbers at the track are staggering: five wins, 24 top 10s in 36 starts and top-two finishes in six of the last eight races. A remarkable 11 of his 58 career victories have come in his home state. Hamlin leads all drivers in laps led at Richmond (2,367), and both he and his team (JGR owns 19 total Richmond wins among six different winning drivers) have dominated recent years. As the most realistic remaining threat to Byron or Elliott in the Regular Season Championship battle, all eyes will be on Hamlin to see if he can keep his grip on the short-track throne.
With the bubble bursting and only Daytona left after Richmond, will old patterns persist? The stats point to another ride for reliable hands, but as the playoff drama intensifies, we’ll all be watching for a narrative-busting breakout or an all-time upset.
3. Was Watkins Glen a wake-up call for Chase Elliott?
Steve Letarte and Alex Weaver analyze Chase Elliott’s 26th-place performance at Watkins Glen International and what the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports driver needs for a deep playoff run.
4. Must-win drivers below bubble with past victories at Richmond, Daytona
Plenty can happen over the next two races, and these playoff hopefuls that have yet to clinch are hoping they can find a way to repeat history and capture a postseason-clinching win before the field is set. (Credit: Racing Insights)
| Driver | Richmond | Daytona |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | 6 | 1 |
| Brad Keselowski | 2 | 1 |
| Austin Dillon | 1 | 2 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 2 | |
| Michael McDowell | 1 | |
| Erik Jones | 1 | |
| Justin Haley | 1 |
5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage
Paint Scheme Preview: 2025 Richmond Raceway
Shane van Gisbergen striking while iron is hot in pursuit of improbable title run
Three Up, Three Down: Elliott, Gibbs, Larson all dipping down after The Glen
Richmond, Daytona loom large in final regular-season push before playoffs
Clinching scenarios for Cup drivers at Richmond
William Byron inches closer to Regular Season Championship with fourth at The Glen
Chris Buescher gobbles up valuable points on playoff bubble at Watkins Glen
SVG the Tiger Woods of road racing: Tune in to see if he can be beat
Power Rankings: Will Preece win Richmond, squeeze Buescher below bubble?
