NASCAR Insights: Who’s strongest statistically for the Round of 16?

Racing Insights is doing something different with its NASCAR Insights stats for the playoffs by providing numbers specifically tailored to the Round of 16. By looking at statistics at similar tracks, they’ve come up with rankings in the categories of speed, long-run speed, passing, defense and restarts to give a glimpse of drivers’ strengths and weaknesses for the first three races of the Cup Series Playoffs at Darlington Raceway, World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway and Bristol Motor Speedway.

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What’s immediately noticeable in the numbers is Daytona winner Ryan Blaney ranks first among full-time drivers in speed, long-run speed and passing. At seventh in defense and fourth in restarts, Blaney’s total score of 14 puts him at the very top of the list (see table below). This is notable because Blaney has yet to win at any of the tracks in the Round of 16 — but he has had some strong performances there lately, where it’s not hard to imagine him being in Victory Lane at any of the three tracks.

That said, Denny Hamlin and William Byron aren’t that far off from Blaney with total scores of 16 and 17, respectively. Hamlin ranks second in long-run speed and defense, third in speed, fourth in passing and fifth on restarts. Byron is first on restarts, second in both speed and passing, third on long-run speed and ninth on defense. Expect Hamlin and Byron to be like Blaney and advance to the Round of 12 rather easily, barring unforeseen circumstances such as wrecks or mechanical issues.

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On the flipside of the equation are Shane van Gisbergen and Austin Dillon. SVG is the lowest playoff driver on the list with a total score of 156 as he ranks 28th in defense, 29th in long-run speed, 31st in speed, 33rd in passing and 35th in restarts on tracks similar to the ones in the Round of 16. Therefore, for the Round of 12 race at the Charlotte Roval to be a factor for the road-course ace, he’ll need to buck the statistical trends and hope for some bad luck for other playoff drivers in the opening round.

Dillon, meanwhile, is more within reach of the other playoff drivers than SVG with a total score of 102. He ranks 14th in defense, 18th in long-run speed, 21st in passing, 22nd in speed and 27th on restarts. Darlington is probably Dillon’s best chance for a top-10 finish in the Round of 16, so it’s imperative he gets off to a good start there.

But if you’re looking for a dark-horse driver who might punch above his weight so to speak, look no further than Tyler Reddick. Although Reddick enters Darlington below the cutoff line 14th in the standings, he’s the sixth-best driver on the NASCAR Insights list with a total score of 41. Reddick ranks third in passing, sixth in speed, ninth in long-run speed, 11th on defense and 12th on restarts. Reddick hasn’t had the statistical growth this season that he’s enjoyed in the past, but the possibility is still there for him to put things together and go on a run.

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Enjoy looking at the numbers and coming up with some of your own conclusions from the table below: