The overwhelming sentiment following Saturday’s practice sessions for the NASCAR Enjoy Illinois 300 (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway is that passing will be very difficult today.
MORE: Gateway starting lineup in photos | Full race preview
This means track position and pit-stall selection — both determined by qualifying results — will be extremely important for teams and drivers on Sunday afternoon.
Live NASCAR odds list Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin at +450 as race co-favorites, followed by Kyle Larson (+550), Christopher Bell (+700) and Chase Briscoe (+850).
But with so much uncertainty regarding the ability to pass, and considering this could become a track-position and even fuel-mileage race, I’m passing on outrights and am instead backing a race favorite to score a top-three finish.
NASCAR Odds, Best Bet Pick for Gateway
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Christopher Bell is known for his prowess at short, flat tracks, so I already had my eye on the No. 20 Toyota heading into Saturday’s on-track activity.
Interestingly, Bell didn’t exactly light the practice sheets on fire yesterday, but there’s often more than meets the eye when it comes to speed charts.
My Bell interest was later piqued when Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Chase Briscoe mentioned Bell as a driver he thought was best in practice.
After consulting with Action Network’s NASCAR guru Nick Giffen, I learned that Bell topped Giffen’s proprietary practice FLAGS metric, which examines many factors, like practice grouping, track conditions and short- and long-run speed to cut through the noise and determine which drivers truly had the best cars.
I’m not necessarily against betting Bell to win outright either, but my worry is that strategy or a slower late-race pit stop could lose front-running cars track position — position that may be hard to make all the way back up.
Therefore, I’m grabbing Bell to score a top-three finish at +210.
NASCAR Pick: Christopher Bell (+210) for a Top-3 Finish — DraftKings