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October 4, 2025

What to Watch: Charlotte Roval sets stage for dramatic Round of 12 finale


Track: Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval
Location: Concord, North Carolina
Track length: 2.28 miles
When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
Where to tune in: USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App
Race purse: $9,797,935
Race distance: 109 laps | 248.52 miles
Stages: 25 | 50 | 109
Defending winner: Kyle Larson, October 2024
Paint Scheme Preview: See fresh designs for Roval
Starting lineup:
Tyler Reddick rockets to Busch Light Pole

RELATED: How to watch on USA Network

Roval’s Round of 12 finale puts rivals to the test in title chase

CONCORD, N.C. — The Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval’s unique, 2.28-mile layout has always lent itself to playoff drama as the final race of the Round of 12.

The theatrics will reach a fever pitch Sunday through the combination of the track’s oval banking, its infield road course and the electric postseason implications on the line before setting the Round of 8 contenders.

MORE: Weekend schedule: Roval | Cup Series entry list

Locked into the penultimate segment of the playoffs are Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott by virtue of their respective wins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway. Beneath the cutline before Sunday’s Bank of America Roval 400 are Ross Chastain (minus-13), Bubba Wallace (minus-26), Tyler Reddick (minus-29) and Austin Cindric (minus-48). At least three of those drivers will be chasing victory as their one assured path out of the Round of 12. But to do so, they will need to beat Shane van Gisbergen, who has won each of the last four road-course races in the NASCAR Cup Series.

“Obviously there’ll be a lot of guys with yellow spoilers trying to get great results and trying to advance themselves on,” van Gisbergen said Saturday. “So be mindful of them, but yeah, just have to do my own thing and respect their race, but trying to get the best result I can for us, too, and being up front is the best place to be out of trouble.”

Elliott’s fate was settled last week in a thrilling finish in overtime at Kansas that propelled him to the win and into the Round of 8. But one week of assured guarantees doesn’t equate to the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team backing off the gas pedal.

“I don’t know that the situation really changes that,” Elliott said. “We still try to show up each week and be really prepared. And I thought we had a good week of prep this week and went about our business like we would have done if we hadn’t won last week. I think that’s an important thing to keep that cadence and keep your process the same because it’s not like the season’s over; we’ve still got another month.

“I think our team is in a good place. We just keep going about our business and keep our heads down and we certainly know we have room to improve, even with last week. So we’ll look to try and do some of that this week, and then certainly try and find some more next week in Vegas.”

MORE: Playoff standings before Kansas

Beneath the cutline is where the drama lies. Reddick rushed to the pole position in qualifying, a critical boon in what he and the No. 45 23XI Racing team view as a must-win race.

“Just got to lean on my experience here (and) the work that we put in over the year to find some more speed on the road courses,” Reddick said ahead of his pole run. “This has been one of our stronger tracks over the years as well. So we’ve just got to lean on the work that we’ve been putting in over the year, and the work that I’ve put in as well and see where it takes us.”

Chastain has a chance to point his way into the Round of 8 instead of solely relying on a win. But extreme lap-time fall-off in practice with an inaugural Roval appearance for these Goodyear tires will factor into how the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing team attacks Sunday’s finale: Do they chase the points or pursue the victory?

“Starting 10th, we’ll have a decision to make at the end of Stage 1,” Chastain said. “With the tire fall-off we just saw, it’s going to be evolving quickly. So it’s up to Trackhouse and (crew chief) Phil Surgen.

“I’m asking for a lot of changes. I don’t think we can do (them). You can’t do that kind of stuff in today’s world. When you’re slowing down that much (and) the pace is slowing, we would change things. I don’t know what they would even change if they could, but I know we’re not allowed, so we’ll make do with what we can.”

At the bottom of the playoff standings sits Cindric, who made no bones about the position his No. 2 Team Penske group enters in.

“We have to win to advance to the next round of the playoffs,” Cindric said. “And (we’re) coming off a good race here last year. Knowing that the tire was different and the same tire as what we’ve run all the other road courses at, I feel like we’ve taken a step back at those events. So kind of trying to apply what we have from our notebook. And honestly, regardless of what happens tomorrow, just super proud of everyone’s effort this week. A lot’s gone into it — not that we don’t put the maximum, but I’ve watched a lot of people go outside of their comfort zones to make sure this week is going to be as good a chance as possible to have a shot at the win.”

RELATED: Full Saturday recap from Charlotte Roval

Tyler Reddick drives at the Charlotet Roval.
Ethan Smith | For NASCAR Digital Media

From atop the pit box …

What do crew chiefs have in focus to win Sunday’s race?

The Goodyear tire compound used for this weekend’s event at the Charlotte Roval is the same as has been used at all road courses in 2025. But the lap-time fall off seen through Saturday’s practice session was more drastic than teams expected.

Last year’s pole-earning lap time was 82.704 seconds for Shane van Gisbergen. Reddick’s quick time Saturday was 85.939 seconds, a full 3.2 seconds slower on the same course configuration.

“We expected it to be slow. We were slower than expected and the fall-off’s quite a bit more,” Rudy Fugle, crew chief of William Byron’s No. 24 car, told NASCAR.com Saturday. “It’s super hard to predict what it’ll do (Sunday). It’s been higher fall-off by quite a bit in all practices with this tire, and then it flattens out. So we’ll see. But yeah, it’s definitely a handful out there. Not much grip.”

RELATED: Full 2025 schedule

Starting 13th, Byron and the No. 24 crew are in a solid position to advance into the Round of 8, sitting sixth at 40 points above the cutline. But the potential for a new winner from beneath the cutline would suddenly put the focus around Byron, Chase Briscoe (plus-21) and Joey Logano (plus-13). Road courses typically provide teams with two main options: Pit before the stage end to forfeit stage points and prioritize track position, or stay on track and collect stage points and claw back through traffic on the ensuing restart.

“I think it’s a little bit reckless to not chase a little bit of points,” Fugle said. “We’re really racing the 22 (Logano) and the 19 (Briscoe) for that eighth-place position. So that’s what we’re gonna be watching the most because obviously Reddick’s good enough to win and knock somebody out, and there’s other cars, too. So we’ll watch that and look for points.”

On the flip side of the cutline sits the No. 23 Toyota from 23XI Racing. Driver Bubba Wallace was less than half a lap away from locking himself into the Round of 8 with a victory at Kansas before contact with boss Denny Hamlin left him in the wall and fifth in the running order. Wallace enters the Roval 10th in points, 26 points out. Crew chief Charles Denike has hopes of winning in mind to get the No. 23 team into the semifinal round of the postseason for the first time.

“For us, we’re in a need-to-win situation, and that’s how we’ll tackle the race tomorrow,” Denike told NASCAR.com before Saturday practice. “Today, first off, is make sure that our car is driving well and our balance is where we need to (be), and our success tomorrow starts with qualifying really well. Bubba is very capable here, so we’ll set our sights on qualifying really well so that we can race for the win.”

A solid 12th-place qualifying effort marks Wallace’s third straight starting spot inside the top 15 at the Charlotte Roval. If Wallace is able to charge into the top five, that opens up more opportunities for Denike on pit road.

“Unique to this track is that if you’re running in the top few — top three or so — and it runs green, you can actually flip (the stage) and still get eighth, ninth or 10th-place stage points or so,” Denike explained. “It’s a little different just with the field spread and the time loss on pit road than a normal road course.”

But to win, they must beat an extremely competitive field — one that includes SVG.

“We just view him as the elite competitor that he is, but nothing’s guaranteed for anybody,” Denike said. “We build really fast cars, and Bubba does a really good job on these things. So if we’re not able to be leading, we at least will be doing everything we can to stay in touch with whoever that leader is, whether it’s the 88 or somebody else, because you never know what might happen. And to be able to win, first and foremost, you’ve got to keep yourself in contention all the way to the end.”

RELATED: See where drivers will pit for Sunday’s race

Shane van Gisbergen makes a pit stop at the Charlotte Roval.
Keenan Hairston | Getty Images

History tells us …

If you need to win to advance … good luck. In seven years of Roval racing, only once has someone in a must-win situation won to advance to the next round: Christopher Bell in 2022.

He may not be the favorite to win, but watch out for …

TY GIBBS. Few drivers have been able to give SVG a run for his money this year. One of those few, though, was Gibbs at Mexico City back in June. That track also produced the most tire fall-off seen this season on a road course. Conditions may play into the No. 54 Toyota driver this weekend at the Roval, where Gibbs finished fourth in 2023. | See Gibbs’ projected finishing position

Fantasy update

NASCAR Fantasy Live expert Dustin Albino provides insight for your Sunday lineup.

Significant tire fall-off in a playoff elimination race sounds familiar, right? Over a 15-lap run in practice, speeds dropped nearly five seconds, unless your name is SVG. Knowing many playoff drivers are likely chasing stage points while the bulk of the field flips the stages throws a wrench into building a lineup. But the road-course aces seem to find a way, which is what I’m banking on. The lone changes are adding William Byron, who ranked as among the best cars in the field, and Chase Briscoe, who was the third-fastest playoff driver in qualifying. Gone are Chase Elliott and Joey Logano, despite this being the No. 22 car’s best road course as of late.

Lineup: Shane van Gisbergen, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, AJ Allmendinger, William Byron.

Garage: Chase Briscoe

MORE: Lineup advice in Fantasy Fastlane

Speed reads

Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.

NASCAR at the Roval: Key info, qualifying reports and more from tripleheader weekend | Read more
– Racing Insights: Van Gisbergen projected to win again at the Roval | Read more
– Bubble Watch:
Will anyone hit a Roval walk-off? | Read more
– At-track photos: Trackside sights, scenes from Charlotte Motor Speedway | View gallery
– Memorable moments:
History of walk-off winners in the playoffs | Read more
Turning Point to Charlotte: Final exams are here to test title contenders | Read more
– Neil Paine: Who needs to win — and who can beat SVG to do it? | Read more
– Playoff Pulse:
Who’s hot, who’s not ahead of the Roval | Read more
– Power Rankings:
Sizing up where playoff drivers stand | This week’s ranks

Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace race at the Charlotte Roval.
Ethan Smith | For NASCAR Digital Media

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