Racing Insights’ projection model has processed recent drafting-track trends, team strengths and overall superspeedway history to forecast how Sunday’s Autotrader 400 at Atlanta’s EchoPark Speedway (3 p.m. ET, FOX, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) could unfold, and it could portend great things for a pair of NASCAR Cup Series champions with Georgia ties.
With qualifying canceled due to inclement weather on Saturday and the starting lineup set per the rule book, track position will evolve organically in the draft after Daytona 500 winner Tyler Reddick leads the field to the green flag. If the data dive is any indication, here’s how the field could stack up after Sunday’s event at the 1.54-mile drafting track.
RELATED: Full starting lineup | EchoPark Speedway preview
DRIVERS TO WATCH
JOEY LOGANO: Logano stands as the model’s projected winner, and few drivers manage this style of race better than the three-time Cup Series champion and former literal EchoPark Speedway resident. Logano’s pack-racing decisiveness and ability to control lanes have made Team Penske a perennial drafting benchmark, led by the No. 22 team. On a track where momentum shifts in milliseconds, he consistently positions himself to dictate the final move rather than react to it. Of course, Georgia native and most recent EchoPark winner Chase Elliott could have something to say about it, and he’s projected to finish second.
BRAD KESELOWSKI: Superspeedway pedigree still matters, and few in the field own a deeper resume in the draft than Keselowski, who was moments from his first Daytona 500 win not even a week ago. RFK Racing has shown consistent pack speed in the Next Gen era, and the 2012 champion’s timing and spatial awareness remain elite, even in the waning years of his career. If the race turns strategic late, as it likely will, expect the No. 6 to surface near the front.
KYLE BUSCH: Projected to land inside the top 10, Busch’s experience in managing chaotic lanes and split-pack scenarios makes him a legitimate threat, and we know he’ll have the speed – that was evident throughout Speedweeks at Daytona. That has historically been the case during his time at Richard Childress Racing at EchoPark, and he should have the ability to be opportunistic in Atlanta’s draft action, with his veteran instincts paying dividends. The winless streak, pushing three years now, could snap here.
FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR 2026 AUTOTRADER 400 AT ECHOPARK SPEEDWAY (3 P.M. ET, FOX)
| FINISH | CAR NUMBER | DRIVER |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 2 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 4 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 5 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 6 | 5 | Kyle Larson |
| 7 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 8 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 9 | 24 | William Byron |
| 10 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 11 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 12 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 13 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 14 | 71 | Michael McDowell |
| 15 | 7 | Daniel Suárez |
| 16 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 17 | 38 | Zane Smith |
| 18 | 60 | Ryan Preece |
| 19 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 20 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 21 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 22 | 41 | Cole Custer |
| 23 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 24 | 10 | Ty Dillon |
| 25 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger |
| 26 | 21 | Josh Berry |
| 27 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 28 | 34 | Todd Gilliland |
| 29 | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 30 | 19 | Chase Briscoe |
| 31 | 35 | Riley Herbst |
| 32 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 33 | 88 | Connor Zilisch |
| 34 | 97 | Shane van Gisbergen |
| 35 | 4 | Noah Gragson |
| 36 | 51 | Cody Ware |
| 37 | 44 | JJ Yeley |
| 38 | 78 | BJ McLeod |