Racing Insights: Which driver will have an ace up their sleeve in Las Vegas?

The first of nine traditional 1.5-mile races on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule begins Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (4 p.m. ET, FS1, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), with the data projecting the usual intermediate aces to hold the winning cards.

Joe Gibbs Racing staked a claim during Saturday’s qualifying session, with Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin and Ty Gibbs wheeling fast Toyotas en route to a 1-2-3 start in Sunday’s race. Despite this, Racing Insights has a Hendrick Motorsports driver — Kyle Larson — collecting the checkered flag. Five Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing drivers (Larson, Bell, Hamlin, Byron, Elliott) are projected to finish inside the top 10, which, if the predictions ring true, will continue a stretch of dominance for both organizations on 1.5-mile tracks.

Here is how the rest of the field stacks up heading into Sunday’s race.

RELATED: Full starting lineup | Las Vegas preview

DRIVERS TO WATCH

RYAN PREECE: The No. 60 RFK Racing Ford looks to continue a strong start to 2026, with the metrics predicting a 10th-place result at Las Vegas. Preece’s 16.3 average finish through the first four races to begin the season is his best start to a campaign since 2021 (12.8), not to mention the 35-year-old Connecticut native has been on a bit of a roll at Las Vegas, finishing inside the top 10 in both races there in 2025, including a third-place result last March. Preece’s eighth-place start is his best beginning position so far in 2026 and his first career top-10 start at Las Vegas.

BUBBA WALLACE: If there is an organization best equipped to overtake the Joe Gibbs-Hendrick Motorsports brigade in Las Vegas, it could be 23XI Racing. Look no further than Wallace and the No. 23 camp; while the team is projected to finish 12th at Las Vegas, there is positive momentum going for them. Wallace’s 8.8 average finish to begin 2026 is his best career start to a season, and while his last six races on 1.5-mile tracks have yielded mixed results (two top fives, four finishes of 22nd or worse), you can’t discount playing the hot hand. Wallace will start fourth, his best career start in Sin City.

AUSTIN DILLON: The No. 3 Richard Childress Racing driver will start just outside the top 10 on Sunday (11th), and while the metrics project a finish outside the top 20 (22nd), it is entirely possible this fortune can be reversed for the better. Las Vegas is the only 1.5-mile track where Dillon has multiple top-five finishes in Cup.

FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR 2026 PENNZOIL 400 PRESENTED BY JIFFY LUBE (4 P.M. ET, FS1)