Racing Insights: Who will prevail as Martinsville master?

NASCAR Cup Series drivers will be tasked with navigating the 0.526-mile Virginia short track known as “The Paperclip” in Sunday’s Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Given that each competitor will have additional horsepower, tire falloff and brakes, the 400-lapper may produce a challenge on multiple fronts in the fight for the iconic grandfather clock. Racing Insights projects that typical Martinsville masters will rise to the front when it matters most, with prediction models feeling confident that Chase Elliott will earn his first Cup Series victory of the 2026 season.

Will the No. 9 Chevrolet driver earn Hendrick Motorsports’ first win of the year after seven races, or will another elite short-track racer rise to the occasion? Here’s a look at other drivers to keep an eye on and the full projected results for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race.

RELATED: Full starting lineup | Martinsville preview

DRIVERS TO WATCH

DENNY HAMLIN: The defending winner of the Martinsville spring race comes to “The Paperclip” riding a hot streak of five consecutive finishes of 13th or better since the season-opening Daytona 500. Picking up his first win of the 2026 season and 61st of his Cup Series career at Las Vegas two weeks ago, Hamlin may be in line for win No. 62. The polesitter for Sunday’s race has five top fives in the last seven Martinsville races, and is projected to finish second by Racing Insights.

WILLIAM BYRON: In last year’s Martinsville fall race, Byron was super dominant after scoring the pole, sweeping both stages and winning his way into the Championship race. Few drivers have been better than Byron at Martinsville in recent memory, with his 664 laps led — it’s the most he’s led at any track on the Cup Series schedule. The No. 24 Chevrolet driver, who has won three of the last eight Martinsville races, is projected to finish in the top five by Racing Insights.

JOEY LOGANO: While the Team Penske driver may not have as many Martinsville wins as Hamlin or Byron, he has earned the title of “Mr. Consistency.” In the last 13 Martinsville races, Logano has 10 top-10 finishes at the Virginia short track. After an uncharacteristically poor showing last weekend at Darlington, look for the No. 22 team to bounce back after Racing Insights projected a sixth-place finish.

FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR 2026 COOK OUT 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1)