FORT WORTH, Texas — Drivers who race on the ragged edge are rewarded at Texas Motor Speedway. Crossing that line, however, pays a steep price.
Since the inception of the Next Gen car in 2022, no track has produced more cautions per race than the 1.5-mile oval (14). The longest stretch of racing in those four races is a mere 50 laps (twice). All three races held here since the race distance was altered to 400 miles have resulted in at least 11 cautions, including tying the track record in 2024 with 16 yellow flags. Dating back to 2019, seven of the last eight TMS races have hit double digits.
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“It’s (Steve) Letarte that always jokes, ‘Tell me when the caution is, I’ll tell you what the right call is,'” Brian Wilson, crew chief of the No. 2 car driven by Austin Cindric, who led 60 laps en route to a Stage 1 victory in 2025, told NASCAR.com. “You are trying to time those correctly and making sure you’re ahead of it. Track position it’s key around here, so making sure we make our pit stops at the right time is going to be crucial.”
Among the challenges at Texas includes the narrow racing groove. While Turns 1 and 2 are plenty wide, the quickest way around is planting the bottom line, as the surface flattens out quickly on corner exit. The preferred lane moves up through Turns 3 and 4, with the commitment level at an all-time high. Chase Briscoe said last week that there is no other set of corners on the circuit that compares to that sensation of speed.
Should a driver miss the groove ever so slightly through Turns 3 and 4, a patch of bumps can sneak up and wad them up.
“If you shy up as the race goes on, one-and-a-half lanes will open up,” Mike Kelley, crew chief for Ricky Stenhouse Jr., said. “But if you step out and get in the bumps at the wrong time with the wrong air pressure, your load limiters in the back are very sensitive to that and you see guys bust their ass all the time.
“It’s a product of the race track since they’ve changed it and went to the multi-groove angles. The tire, the car and all the things that go with the Next Gen car. These guys are running on them on the edge.”
Being on the right side of the caution flag from a strategy standpoint is paramount. Kelley recalled having a hot rod in 2024 that he thought could contend for the win and short-pitted with several leaders. When a caution flew during a cycle of green-flag pit stops, the No. 47 car was forced to take the wave around and finished 23rd. Stenhouse ran a stint long last year and was rewarded when the caution flew during another set of green-flag stops, driving to a sixth-place effort, one of two top 10s in the last three trips to TMS for Hyak Motorsports.
New this go around is the Goodyear tire. This compound has previously run in 2026 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Darlington Raceway and most recently Kansas Speedway. Having that setup could throw teams a curveball come the main event, as there was one natural caution apiece in Sin City and the Sunflower State.
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“We’ve seen a rash of the opposite [in 2026] and all these races have gone almost the whole stage lengths without a caution,” Kelley added. “I don’t know what’s going to happen when these two worlds collide. You come to the track that has the most cautions with the package that has had the least. I would bet on Texas biting some people still.”
As with any high-speed venue, hitting the balance precisely will be commended. Track position could reign supreme, however, with plenty of unknowns on the horizon.
“I still expect Texas is going to [have more cautions] than those races. But is it going to be calmer than last year?” Wilson pondered. “You’re gambling on when you’re going to get the caution and how it plays out.
“Both of those races, you’ve been able to see guys take two tires, stay out. That’s something that’s been in the playbook here at Texas. I think you’re going to see a lot of guys gamble on strategy and try to get the track position with different pit calls.”